[ad_1]
Simulations carried out by researchers from the University of São Paulo (USP) and published today by the newspaper “O Globo” show that the number of deaths from covid-19 can double in 20 days. In addition, the country may have 400,000 cases by June 5.
Specialist in medical and biological applications of the group, Carlos Alberto Bragança Pereira is responsible for calculating the estimate. To reach the number, use a model that takes into account the number of infections and the survival period of the virus in cases where there are deaths.
Pereira tested the model with data from China, the initial epicenter of covid-19. The behavior of the virus has been found to vary by state. Thus, the peak of contamination in Rio de Janeiro, for example, can occur in August, reaching 100,000 cases.
In São Paulo, the current epicenter in Brazil, the peak may occur in late May, reaching a number between 135,000 and 160,000 cases. The state could have up to 6,000 deaths in 20 days.
Oswaldo Yoshimi Tanaka, a medical doctor and director of the USP School of Public Health, believes that social isolation is the only way to prevent people from dying while waiting for a place in the ICU.
“If everyone catches them at once, they will die without reaching an ICU. Isolation is an ethical, moral and human problem,” he said.
