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RIO – With the vote count in the United States pointing to a tougher than expected dispute between President Donald Trump and Democratic opponent Joe Biden, election analysts from different American vehicles are cautiously assessing the leadership of Republicans in states considered key in Dispute of the Electoral College. The unprecedented adherence to early voting and by mail in this year’s dispute, which takes place amid the Covid-19 pandemic, makes the scene uncertain even in decisive regions where Trump is leading in a preliminary way.
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Nate Cohn of the New York Times, responsible for the newspaper’s model that projects results in the decisive states of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, ponders that the results are still adjusted in the latter state. According to Cohn, two counties in North Carolina reported the votes wrongly, subtracting 40,000 votes from Biden. If the correction is considered, the Democrat would still lag behind Trump, but the trade-off is expected to make the dispute even more difficult.
The NYT analyst, however, notes that the US president is outperforming the 2016 election in some regions of Pennsylvania, such as Crumbull County. Biden and Trump dedicated the last days of the campaign to the state, considered strategic by its 20 delegates in the Electoral College. Ballot counting in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania’s main city, has come to a halt and many of the first votes have yet to be counted.
For Nate Silver, editor of the FiveThirtyEight website, a benchmark in electoral modeling, very little is known about the results of most states, which mostly personally reported the votes cast. While pointing to a clear mismatch between the election polls and Trump’s lead in the state of Florida, Silver contends that early voting makes the scenario uncertain and could make a difference for Democrats.
“Trump is in a better position than he was in the early hours of the night. Biden will not have an overwhelming victory. But there is still a ton of information (about the election results) outside of Florida,” Silver wrote on Twitter.
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The expert recalls that Biden performed better than expected in the Midwestern suburbs, such as Kansas, where Trump had the most votes. Even if the Republican takes delegates from some of those states, Biden’s advance into more conservative fiefdoms could make a difference in the final stretch of decisive states in the region, such as Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin.
“Analyzing anything based on the preliminary results of the election night is a trap because we never had that big difference between early and face-to-face votes on both sides of the dispute,” the analyst added on Twitter.
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FiveThirtyEight does not rule out that the election will end in a tie in the Electoral College, with 269 delegates from each party, if Trump’s leadership remains strong in the most strategic states and Biden loses Pennsylvania. In this case, Democrats would depend on the second district of Maine and Nebraska to ensure the victory of the former US vice president. These two states are the only ones that proportionally distribute the votes in the Electoral College, while in the remaining 48 the model is “winner takes all”, regardless of the margin.
For Ezra Klein, editor of the Vox website, an eventual Trump victory would be attributed to the president’s advance on the Latino electorate. Klein, however, believes that the loss of Republican support among white voters, if confirmed, could cost him the White House.
