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To collect and guarantee liquidity during the new coronavirus pandemic, Brazilian companies with publicly traded stocks are reducing or postponing the payment of multi-million dollar dividends to their investors.
A projection made by the consultancy Economática indicates that the forecast of dividend payments for this year reached R $ 119 billion, a record amount, with a growth of 13% in relation to 2019, without taking inflation into account. But the crisis caused by the covid-19 definitively overthrew that movement.
The figure of R $ 119 billion was calculated based on the profits of public companies, which in 2019 was R $ 232.4 billion: dividends are paid based on the result of the previous year. “The projection pointed to a record number. But, for sure, there will be a big drop ”, says the manager of institutional relations at Economática, Einar Rivero. “However, it is still necessary to wait for meetings with investors to define how much the volume will fall.”
What is already known is that payments in the banking segment, which historically led the distribution of dividends, with values above 60% of earnings, are expected to decrease dramatically. Banks made R $ 91 billion in 2019 and the market expected around R $ 74 billion in profit. However, after a resolution by the Central Bank, which limited the distribution of the institutions’ results to 25% of profits, with the aim of increasing the sector’s liquidity, this account should be close to R $ 18 billion.
In addition to the banking segment, at least 6 of the top 25 dividend payers in the country have also stated that they should minimize disbursements or, at best, postpone payments until the end of the year.
This is what will happen to Petrobras (PETR3; PETR4). Last week, the company’s board of directors approved the change in the payment date for shareholders. The disbursement will take place on May 20 and December 15. The amount pending payment is R $ 1.7 billion for ordinary shares (R $ 0.23 per share) and R $ 2.5 billion for preferred shares (R $ 0.00045 per share). Last Monday, the shareholders of MRV (MRVE3) approved the payment of mandatory minimum dividends of R $ 163 million, which represents R $ 0.34 per share. The base date, however, has not yet been defined.
But the list still has companies like the Brazilian arm of the French energy company Engie (EGIE3), which has already declared that it will review its payment plan, in addition to the energy distributor Energisa (ENGI11) and the equatorial generator (EQTL3), which they said. that they would reevaluate the dividend plan due to the sharp drop in income.
“We can understand that difficult times will arise and the natural tendency is for companies to retain dividends to preserve liquidity,” says Pedro Galdi, chief analyst at Ativa Investimentos. “Petrobras has already announced (change of date), Vale (VALE3) should also announce a change and more. The best dividend payers are in the electricity sector, which will be greatly affected by the crisis. Everyone’s decision will be to withhold to keep the cash. “
Despite the dividend reduction movement, Shana Agostini, senior credit analyst at Indosuez bank, sees no risk of dividend cancellation. “We have been simulating scenarios and companies, despite the drop in revenues, will be able to pay. At the end of the crisis, they are still standing. “
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