Coronavirus chegou to or Brazil before carnival, said study

O trabalho shows that, when the first blocks were made for the ruas, they had been transmitted by the community of doença, which, in fact, had been greatly accelerated by the agglomerations. The first cases are seriam do fim de janeiro.

Or it was studied using a statistical method of inferrence, based on two death records, and published in a magazine “Memórias do Instituto Oswaldo Cruz” in a previous way, even after peer review. O trabalho também revealed that the viruses began to circulate long before they were officially registered in Europe and the United States.

The authors stress that, in all the countries analyzed, the circulation of Covid-19 came very soon before control measures were implemented, such as restrictions on air travel and social distance.

“This rather long period of community transmission hides from attention to or great challenge to trace dissemination to the new virus and indicates that the control measures must be endorsed, less so, assuming that the first imported forem cases detected in a geographic region “says Gonzalo Bello, researcher at the Aids Laboratory and Molecular Imunology of the IOC / Fiocruz, coordinator of the research.

In Europe, around the world there are approximately emados de janeiro na Itália and between the end of janeiro and the beginning of February, in Belgium, França, Alemanha, Holland, Spain and the United Kingdom. Or começo de fevereiro também foi or period of beginning of the dissemination in the city of New York, in the United States, according to study.

The research is the first time to start or the period of commencement of the community transmission in Brazil and reinforces preliminary evidence of research conducted in Europe based on genetic analyzes. It further corroborates evidence of studies carried out in the United States, which will indicate the viral spread in the city of New York between January 29 and February 26.

In spite of several countries, the beginning or the beginning of the community transmission in very near moments, the expansion of the epidemic in each locality seems to be followed by its own dynamic.

“I am moving progressively, to the dynamic of the epidemic expansion defined by local fathers, as environmental characteristics of temperature, precipitation and pollution, population density and population of the Gonçalo Moniz Institute (Fiocruz-Bahia), Tiago Graf .

In addition to helping to clarify or initiate local transmission of Sars-CoV-2 in the countries studied, the authors stressed that the results obtained are reinforced by the implementation of permanent molecular surveillance systems, once or again they can circulate again and It will cause success for the next two years.

“An intense virological surveillance is essential to detect early possible reemergence of viruses, informing you of contact tracking systems and providing evidence to carry out appropriate control measures,” adds Gonzalo.

For this reason, to estimate the start period of the community viral transmission of the novo coronavirus, the researchers will develop a new method. The scientists start from one of the most tragic and significant traces of Covid-19: or exponential growth of the number of deaths in the first few weeks of success.

Because in the absence of diagnostic tests and a large percentage of asymptomatic infections, it is difficult to detect cases of death, the death records are considered to be the most reliable information on the progress of the epidemic. We can be used as a “late” tracker, which allows us to observe or do daença course in retrospect.

Considering that the median time between infection and death by Covid-19 is about three weeks and the mortality rate is approximately 1%, scientists will apply a statistical method to infer the time of onset of the epidemic from the number Accumulated deaths in the first weeks of success in each country.

“Observing the two countries where there is a large number of sequenced genomes – China and the United States -, we find that an estimate obtained from the number of deaths is derived from genetic analysis, validating the new approach,” says researcher. da Udelar Daiana Mir.

No, Brazil, other evidences, obtained from different methodologies, support the estimate that the local transmission of Covid-19 did not start in February, coinciding with the expansion of the epidemic in North America and Europe. According to InfoGripe, the Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz) system that monitors the hospitalizations of patients with severe acute respiratory symptoms (SARS), or the number of hospitalizations found in 2019 since February 2020.

In addition, retrospective molecular analyzes of SARS samples will detect a case of Sars-CoV-2 infection in Brazil in the fourth epidemiological week, between January 19 and 25. Or sustained increase no number of infections foi observed from the sixth epidemiological week, between 2 and 8 February, as presented by Monitor-19, system of Scientific and Technological Communication and Information Institute in Saúde (Icict / Fiocruz).

“These epidemiological data confirm the introduction of Sars-CoV-2 not Brazil since or end of janeiro and clearly support our results, which suggest that viruses have been circulating in the Brazilian population since or beginning of February,” said Gonzalo.

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