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On May 12, or Brazil registered 9.3 thousand new cases of covid-19, totaling 177 thousand notifications and 12.4 thousand deaths. More or what these and other dice mean the revelation about the reality of doença not Brazil? And how did they compare to other countries?
A BBC News Brazil brought together two main indicators to explain what is the current situation of the country in the pandemic, despite the scarcity of laboratory tests that would serve for a more faithful portrait of reality – specialists use such as “data dying” and “voo cego” “
Currently, since there have been no more ICU lawsuits in the public health system of two States, the cases of deaths are increasing – more so at a rate that has fallen or has remained constant -, each time there have been more small populations affected and heavy less respected or social distance.
Veja abaixo.
1. Brazil is the eighth country in the number of cases, plus or tenth per capita
Or the first case of coronaviruses not Brazil was disclosed federal government hair on February 26. Or a patient had traveled to Italy for work, but at that time it was not known that or viruses had circulated as a non-European country.
Since then, or the volume of new cases registered has grown exponentially, but at a rate that has fallen in the last few days or has remained constant.
On April 12, it registered 1,388 new cases in 24 hours. Em 12 de maio, foram 9.258.
Isso muito ou pouco compared to other countries? Bem, any international comparison is based on limitations. One of them is that each place in the world is in a particular phase of the pandemic.
So, instead of looking for countries with the same calendar, we can avoid some distortions and compare them, for example, from the day of the 100th case registered in each nation. Nesse estagio, or vírus já is circulating among you.
No graph below, on a logarithmic scale, or a vertical trace or number of cases, or a horizontal trace dealing with the number of days from the hundredth case. This scale allows us to see more easily the progress of cases.
How much more vertical is the trend of daily cases, more rapid pandemic is progressing. Currently, or number of cases dobra no Brasil every 5 days, to third pior taxa do mundo. But it did not start, when or number of cases was less and there were no measures such as quarentenas, it happened every two, three days.
Second or physicist Roberto Kraenkel, professor at Unesp (Universidade Estadual de São Paulo) and member of the Observatorio Covid-19 (independent initiative of 43 researchers from the country), a tax of Brazilian contagion was close to 3, not the start of a non-country pandemic. Ou seja, each infected person transmitted to doença for others 3.
Currently, Kraenkel estimates that this taxa transits from 1 to 1.1. For him, this means that the endowed measures have worked, but not enough to keep the number below 1, which indicates or is the cause of a pandemic. Numa taxa of 0.5, for example, 10 infected transmit to doença for 5 people.
Manter-abaixo do patamar de 1 é a condicção que a Alemanha adotou, for example, to make social distancing measures more flexible. In case some region turns to this rate above 1, quarentena will be newly added.
The graphic abaixo explains the relationship between taxa of contágio and absolute growth of the number of cases.
Or the country that is most rapidly adotou this type of measure of distance to China, as a rigorous non-epicenter of the pandemic, from Hubei, few days after the cases of cem passaram. Or confinamento da Itália inteira levou two weeks from or hundredth case.
No 30th day nessa trajetória do graphic, which measures or advances from the 100th case, as notifications cresciam rapidly US and not less quickly Brazil. China has already managed to get or advance and itália has come to control the situation. The United States and Brazil do not add any nationals, but only emuities or isolated States.
Fifty days after the 100th case, the United States and Italy indicated a stabilized pandemic. China practically does not register more new cases.
A trajetória do Brasil ainda apt for top, ou seja, or number of cases ainda cresce. But it is just a trend and it can be dependent on or dependent on what happens in Brazil.
Only that to understand more precisely what is happening, it would be necessary to test the population in order to know what is infected.
Or Brazil, however, has not faced a series of difficulties in expanding its capacity to carry out tests, such as management problems and greater demand than two laboratories have to analyze.
Another problem is that the Ministry of Health does not know how to report directly how many foram tests have been carried out in any country.
Até April 20, second to pasta, submitted to the Brazilian public health network, having carried out 132 thousand tests. Ao everything. On April 20, the United States will conduct 147 thousand tests in 24 hours, accumulating 4 thousand hours.
We compare them by taking into account the size of the population, or Brazil showing on April 20 a tax of 0.63 test for every thousand inhabitants. Os USA, 12.2.
More finally, it is enough tests, how to calculate how many people are infected not in Brazil and will not develop symptoms or will not be diagnosed when they go to the hospital?
You have been walking to try to answer isso. One of the coordinates of the Federal University of Pelotas is in the second phase. Foram escolhidas by amostragem e tested 4.5 thousand pesos in news.
According to the investigators, for each case confirmed, 12 have been notified.
2. Brazil has the lowest death tax per 100,000 inhabitants among the 10 most affected countries
A long pandemic, or coronavirus, killed at least 12.4 thousand people, not Brazil (até 12/05). “Ao menos” because specialists affirm that the identification gives cause of death also suffers from underreporting, more so less.
The first to be officially disclosed was deu em March 17. Or the 62-year-old homem, who was hospitalized at the Sancta Maggiore hospital in São Paulo, spent six days after the first symptoms arose. Ele tinha diabetes and hypertension, two pre-existing doenças that were only considered ridge fators to burn contram or novo coronavirus.
In the last week, morreram 3,877 pesos. Or daily boom até agora deu em 12 de maio, com 881 mortes.
The United States is the country with the highest absolute number of deaths in the current pandemic, and Brazil appears as the seventh comparison.
It was formed in the country or in the population, or Brazil appears in the last of the list of ten most shaved countries in the face of the pandemic produced by the Johns Hopkins University, in the United States.
O Brazil has 3.5 deaths per 100 thousand inhabitants in the list led by Belgium, with 69.3.
Johns Hopkins also analyzes the so-called taxa of mortalidade, ratio between number of deaths per total infected. Second to the American university, this international comparison faces various distortions. These taxa tend to be smaller in countries than most popular populations and tend to be smaller when they have overloaded the health system.
Or Brazil appears seventh, with 7 deaths per 100 infected. A Itália appears em quarto, with 14 deaths per 100 infected. The United States, as an emono, feared 6 deaths per 100 infected.
These taxa also vary quite a bit from one State to another, not Brazil. From 10.4% non-Rio de Janeiro to 1.7% in Tocantins, second dice of May 12.
For além two problems of lack of tests and underreporting, specialists estimate that the real taxa of mortalidade gives covid-19 something between 1% and 3%.
The growing number of deaths at home, which increased during a pandemic, was another indication of underreporting. Or total deaths in house cresceu em média 10.4% non-country between March 16 and April 30, according to data disclosed by the cartorios.
Foram 27,217 deaths not in the home environment, or that represents 20.1% of the total number of records of deaths due to the Civil Registry from the first death by covid-19 (March 16), according to the numbers of the Portal da Transparência do Civil registration.
3. Doença kills more ids, heavy people with black and cardiac doenças
The Brazilian Ministry of Health disclosed an analysis of 1,985 deaths occurring in a country. I give you some indication of what happened in other countries. For example, at the highest incidence among homens. No Brazil, only 48% of the population, but only 60% two patients who died with covid-19.
A disequilibrium is also seen in the life of the victims. The Brazilians with you for 19 years were only 14% of the population, but they represented less than 1% of the people who died from Covid-19.
People who are over 60 years old are only 13% of the population and 72% are two dead.
Another point has been made that it is presença of pre-existing doenças or comorbidities in 70% two deaths. Weight loss, 46% tinham heart disease, 35% tinha diabetes e 9%, pneumopathy.
The dice of the Ministry of Health also show disparity of raça ou cor de pele. Blacks only get 1 in every 4 hospitalized, plus 1 in every 3 deaths. Specialists say that Isso can indicate unequal access to health, but Isso is still under study.
4. Occupation of Leitos UTI passes 90% in 5 States
E nem everyone who contracted or novo coronavírus and interned ou morre. In general, for every 100 infected, 83 recovered, 15 needed to be hospitalized and 2 morrem.
But these numbers vary according to the place or phase of the pandemic.
People can stop moving when they are over the same time and overload or the health system. To conclude this idea, researchers say that São Paulo has not been endorsed without a measure of containment, the ICU lawsuits will be in question since March 31.
It is important because, if there is no treatment or vaccine against the coronavirus, a life can be saved thanks to a unit of intensive care unit (or ICU) with a respirator, which provides oxygen and work like a pump.
We are formed to compare with other countries, or Brazil and the two that fear the most ICU lawsuits per inhabitant not the world, I die because of other epidemics that we face, such as violence and traffic accidents.
The WHO recommends 10 to 30 ICU laws for every 100,000 inhabitants. Or Brazil has about 20. But that taxa varies according to region, to the Southeast, or triple of the North, for example.
São quase 50 thousand, metade na private network, metade na public. But, like 7 em out of every 10 Brazilians depending on SUS, they demand the best public hairs.
How many files are occupied by patients with covid-19? Or the Brazilian government does not know, but it has been doing a census since April piss to try to find out.
Bem different from the situation in Germany where any person can check on a site for employment tax in hospitals in all countries.
An important indicator to understand or what is happening is the number of hospitalizations for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which is the case of a patient hospitalized for having been affected by covid-19 or the flu, for example. This year, or number is 10 times higher.
But it also gives us an understanding of the situation based on data disclosed by the States about the occupation of lawsuits by the UTI of the public network.
In May 10, not Piauí, a tax of occupation dos leitos UTI for covid-19 was 43%. No Espírito Santo, 63%. Em São Paulo, 69%. No Ceará, in Roraima, not Maranhão, in Pernambuco and not Rio de Janeiro, goes over 90%.
5. Doença já reaches all medium and large cities and now progresses inner hair
It is not known to exact date in which or novo coronavírus landed in Brazil, more or the first case of covid-19, to doença caused by the, was registered in São Paulo on February 26.
Starting from Dali, or viruses come to the back of the country, first aerial broken pelas between the capitais and the main urban centers, depois pe rodovias, which interconnect Brazilian cities.
On March 28, there were cases registered in 100% of two municipalities with more than 500 thousand inhabitants, in 42% of two municipalities with population between 100 thousand and 500 thousand people and 15% of which had between 50 thousand and 100 thousand inhabitants.
On April 28, there were cases registered in all two municipalities with more than 100,000 inhabitants and 86%, two of which had between 50,000 and 100,000 inhabitants.
We are small municipalities, or the first case arose on March 14. Since then, 13% of cities with less than 10,000 inhabitants will register cases.
I gave you the MonitoraCovid-19, a bred system, on March 30, by researchers from Fundação Oswaldo Cruz (Fiocruz) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
6. Adesão dos brasileiros ao isolamento social is in curfew
Sem vacina e remédios con eficácia proven, a main strategy that has been endowed to or around the world to count or advance the covid-19 é or social distance.
The intensity varies according to the government, the severity of the situation and the ability to carry out mass tests.
No mole is or total and compulsory confinement with hair governo da Itália. Everyone was banned from leaving home, except to go to the market or to the pharmacy, for example. The other side is not or governs the Coreia do Sul, which has not been confined to the masses, but is not just a few people who are present and monitoring that they have contacted them.
No Brazil, no houve quarentena nacional. Or President Jair Bolsonaro confirms that a measure of the type that has the most devastating socio-economic impact than that of the country, compares or confines to a remedy that ends up killing or patient.
The Federal District was the first unit of the federation to endow some type of restriction on the circulation of people, on March 11.
Only that a confinement does not require that authorities and specialists make frequent recommendations and requests to increase or maintain the weight of the population at a social distance.
Muita people, porém, continue to go to work, mainly you workmen report.
The main way to measure this mobilization is by locating two cell phones. The technology company In Loco monitors the location of 60 milhões de pessoas no Brasil (sem identificalas) and produced a social isolation index, released daily.
The index is recommended to avoid or to avoid the doença, and if there is no country left.
São Paulo, for example, has a target of 70% isolative, but no more than 62.5% and now turns around 43.6%.
Two 5 states that have the most regulations, 3 in the North region and 2 in the Northeast. During a pandemic, or number of deaths in the capital of Amazonas, Manaus, quadrupled in relation to the same period in the past year.
On the other hand, two 5 states that have the least, 3 são do Centro-Oeste. Second Google survey, also from cell phone data, or movement in areas of trade and commerce (except markets and pharmacies) in Goiás caiu 33%. No Amazon, that same segment has 50%.
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