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A study by the Singapore University of Technology and Design predicts that the coronavirus pandemic in Brazil will end on September 17. The peak of the disease is expected, according to the researchers, to be reached next Sunday (03). Worldwide, the end of the pandemic is scheduled for December 2020.
The research is based on daily data collected on the coronavirus worldwide. The researchers caution that study information should be analyzed carefully. “Over-optimism based on some expected end dates is dangerous, as it can loosen our disciplines and controls and cause the virus and infection to change,” the study says.
The researchers cite the example of Singapore and Italy. The Singapore government had tightened the restrictions in April, which researchers say could have doubled its contagion curve earlier than previously anticipated. Meanwhile, the early relaxation of social detachment and blockade in Italy may have increased infection rates and therefore delayed the end of the pandemic.
Singapore is slated to end the pandemic on June 28 and the peak was already recorded in April. Meanwhile, Italy should not see the full end of the coronavirus pandemic until September 4.
The researchers also note that the forecast is conditioned by the quality of the data collected. “The publicly available data today is based on evidence, which is conducted differently in different countries and over time periods,” they point out.
“The evolution of Covid-19 is not completely random. Like other pandemics, it follows a standard cycle life from focus to acceleration, tipping point, deceleration, and eventually the final phase. This life cycle is the result of adapting and adopting behaviors to contain agents, including individuals (avoiding physical contact) and governments (blocking cities), as well as the natural limitations of the virus and our ecosystem. However, pandemic life cycles vary from country to country, and different countries may be different phases of life cycles at the same point in time, “also emphasize the researchers at Singapore University of Technology and Design. .
Situation in Brazil
The survey data shows that Brazil should reach the peak of the disease on Sunday (03). As of Thursday (30), the country had 85,300 confirmed cases and 5,900 confirmed deaths due to the new coronavirus. Another 1,500 deaths were investigated, regardless of whether or not they were caused by the virus. According to the Ministry of Health, 35,900 people have already recovered from covid-19 in Brazil, which corresponds to 42% of those infected.
The Singapore University of Technology and Design predicts that by June 11, 97% of the pandemic will have been controlled in Brazil. On June 24, this percentage is expected to increase to 99%. The end of the pandemic is expected to occur on September 17.
Estimates take into account data collected through April 29.
The world may be free of coronaviruses in December
According to the University of Technology and Design of Singapore, no country should register new cases of coronavirus after December 4, 2020. On May 31, 97% of the pandemic will have been controlled on the planet, a percentage that increases to 99 %. June 18, according to the study.
The global estimate also takes into account data collected as of April 29. According to Johns Hopkins University, in the United States, the world currently has more than 3.2 million confirmed cases of coronavirus. 234,000 deaths have been reported worldwide.
The countries with the most deaths recorded so far were Italy (28 thousand), the United Kingdom (26.7 thousand), Spain (24.5 thousand) and France (24.3 thousand). Fifth, New York City appears in the United States, with 18,000 deaths caused by the coronavirus.
The United States is the country with the most confirmed cases of coronavirus to date (1 million), followed by Spain (213.4 thousand), Italy (205.4 thousand), the United Kingdom (172.4 thousand) and France ( 167, 3 thousand). The last data update was made this Friday (01).
According to the Singapore University of Technology and Design study, the pandemic is expected to end in the United States on September 20; in Spain on August 5; in Italy on September 4; in the UK on August 27; and in France on August 10.
