Brazil experiences Covid ‘start of second wave’ due to lack of evidence, centralized politics and social isolation, researchers say | Coronavirus

• Hospitalizations for Covid-19 grow 17% in the state of SP, in the 2nd week followed by a high
• Covid transmission rate is above 1 again, says Imperial College

They point out at least three factors for the “explosive increase” or “maintain the great circulation of the virus”:

• lack of “systematic test with case monitoring “
• lack of a “coordinated central policy, clear and effective coping with the situation “
• “loosening of insulation measures without empirical evidence, without careful analysis by a panel of experts “

“The situation in Brazil has deteriorated dramatically in the last two weeks, and the start of a second wave of case growth is already evident in almost all states, particularly worrying in the most populated regions of the country,” say researchers in the Technical Note – 11/22/2020 Situation of the Covid-19 pandemic in Brazil.

The researchers warn that the increase in cases is the consequence of “a systematic drop in levels of social isolation, but also of the absence of enlightenment campaigns and a false sense of security spread throughout the population.”

Analysis of researchers from six universities

The technical note is signed by six researchers from the Federal University of São João del-Rei (UFSJ), the Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Bahia Campus Salvador (IFBA), and the Federal University of São Paulo (Unifesp), Bahia State University (Uneb) and Brasilia University (UnB).

Researchers Antônio Carlos Guimarães de Almeida, Antônio José Assunção Cordeiro, Fulvio Alexandre Scorza, Marcelo A. Moret, Tarcísio M. Rocha Filho and Walter Massa Ramalho analyzed the following parameters:

• Case and death data by state: According to the researchers, “Excessive deaths from severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) clearly indicate that the actual number of deaths from Covid-19 is higher than the announced figures, which is also seen in different proportions in other countries.”
• virus circulation measures: Based on the increase in the transmission rate (Rt), the researchers say they can “affirm with a high degree of confidence that a second wave of pandemic growth has already begun throughout the country”
• isolation rates during the pandemic: the technical note states that “social isolation has been falling systematically throughout the country since the first remoteness measures were implemented in March, which explains the still very high rates of transmission of the virus”
• me estimated percentage of infected population: based on a mathematical model, the group affirms that the Brazilian states oscillate – in the projection – between 9% and 28% of the infected people. “As a result, all states are still a long way from achieving potential herd immunity. Allowing the pandemic to spread until it reaches herd immunity would result in far more deaths than seen to date (between three and four times higher), with a strong saturation of the health system, which in turn would further increase the number of deaths, ”say the researchers.

The researchers warn that it is “urgent” that measures be taken at the beginning of the resumption of the severity of the pandemic. They list:

• “Public administrators must base their decisions on the best available scientific evidence”
• “Establish a central coordination in the federal government”
• “Isolation and social distancing policies must be intensified as soon as possible, until effective control of the pandemic is achieved”
• “Implement a comprehensive policy of testing for infection by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, with follow-up and isolation of contacts”
• “Carry out extensive public information campaigns for the population”
• “Implementation of real and effective financial aid for disadvantaged citizens”

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