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RIO – Brazil exceeded 170 thousand deaths from Covid-19. In the last 24 hours, 638 deaths and 33,445 were registered, according to the 8:00 p.m. bulletin of the press vehicle consortium. As a result, 6,121,449 are contaminated and 170,179 lives lost since the start of the pandemic.
The moving average of deaths, also verified by the bulletin, was 491. It is a growth of 54% in relation to 14 days ago. The moving average of cases was 30,350, 34% more than 14 days ago and the highest in the last 65 days.
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The data are from the consortium formed by O GLOBO, Extra, G1, Folha de S.Paulo, UOL and O Estado de S. Paulo, which collects information from state health departments released daily until 8 pm. The media initiative was created from inconsistencies in the data presented by the Ministry of Health.
The “7-day moving average” averages between the number of deaths for the day and the previous six. It is compared with the average of two weeks ago to indicate if there is an upward trend, stability or a downward trend. The calculation is a statistical resource to be able to see the trend of the data, drowning out the “noise” caused on weekends, when the notification of deaths is reduced due to the shortage of shift employees.
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Monday’s Ministry of Health bulletin reported 302 new deaths caused by Covid-19 in the last 24 hours, totaling 169,485 deaths. 16,207 new cases of coronavirus were reported, bringing the number of infected people to 6,087,608 in the country.
The moving average of cases grew in the Federal District and in 15 states: Acre, Amapá, Ceará, Espírito Santo, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraíba, Paraná, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Norte, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, São Paulo, Sergipe, Rondônia and Tocantins. The indicator fell in Goiás, Mato Grosso and Piauí.
The moving average of deaths increased in the states: Amazonas, Ceará, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and São Paulo. On the other hand, it fell in: Acre, Alagoas, Amapa, Paraná, Roraima and Tocantins.
The contagion increases
A new survey by Info Tracker, a tool that monitors the progress of the Covid-19 pandemic in the country, points to a national growth in RT, the rate of transmission of the coronavirus. The rate reached 1.54 on Tuesday, the date it was updated, while on November 18, the date of the last update, the average was 1.35.
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The tool is from the Center for Mathematical Sciences Applied to Industry, developed by professors from the University of São Paulo (USP) and the Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), based on the records of the health authorities. A TR of 1.54 means that every 100 infected people can transmit the virus to another 154, and that 154 infect another 237 and so on.
The virus transmission rate also increased when analyzed separately in each region of the country. In the South, the situation is more worrying, since the TR reached 1.88 and on the 14th at 1.86, it is the only rate with a value higher than the national average.
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It is followed by the Southeast and Northeast regions, with transmission rates of 1.53. 10 days ago, the rates were at 1.33 and 1.31, respectively. Then comes the North, with 1.1 RT, before it was below 1, with 0.99. Finally, there is the Midwest, with a transmission rate of 1.08, a region that also had the RT under control on the 14th (0.97).
Advances in vaccines
The British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford (United Kingdom) announced on Monday morning that their candidate vaccine against Covid-19, ChAdOx1 nCov-2019, is 90% effective against the new coronavirus with only one and a half doses, indicate preliminary data from their clinical trials. The immunizer, tested in Brazil and which has a distribution agreement with the country through Fiocruz, is developed from a chimpanzee adenovirus used as a viral vector to stimulate the immune response against Sars-CoV-2.
The pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca will present the results to Anvisa and request authorization for the emergency use of the immunizer in Brazil. The vaccine is the fourth in the world to present preliminary efficacy results, but it is the only one that already has a closed agreement with the federal government for its purchase and distribution in the country. Representatives from Oxford and AstraZeneca would meet with the Ministry of Health, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz and the National Health Surveillance Agency. If approved by Anvisa, the vaccine should reach the Brazilian population in January 2021.
Other good news in the field of vaccines came from CoronaVac. The phase 3 clinical studies of the Chinese Covid-19 vaccine produced between the Butantan Institute and the Chinese Sinovac laboratory reached the minimum number of infected people necessary to start the process of analyzing the effectiveness of the immunizer. It was necessary for 61 people to have the coronavirus infection, but according to the Covid Committee in São Paulo, 74 had already been infected by the end of last week.
Now, the phase 3 test of the immunizer enters the final stretch, according to an announcement by the São Paulo government, made during a press conference this Monday. In practice, explained Health Secretary Jean Gorinchteyn, the clinical study can be opened and the results analyzed.
– The good news is that the Butantan Institute details the final phase of approval by CoronaVac. We will have the disclosure (of the results) on the effectiveness of the vaccine in the first week of December. It will show how much the vaccine is capable of protecting in real life against the coronavirus, said Jean Gorinchteyn.
