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If the rate of acceleration of the covid-19 pandemic continues, Brazil can see the end of the new coronavirus outbreak only after Christmas on December 29, according to a projection by the University of Singapore’s Data Innovation Lab.
However, the researchers caution that forecasts should be read carefully, are subject to change, and should not result in relaxation of containment measures.
Using data from people infected, susceptible, and recovered from covid-19, the disease caused by the new coronavirus, the researchers project what the behavior of the disease should be in different countries. By looking at patterns, it was possible to guess when the epidemic should peak and come to an end which, by definition, would be the day of the last case of infection.
With the increase in the number of new confirmed cases in Brazil in recent days, the initial projection consulted by Twitter On Tuesday (5) he predicted the last case to October 29, it was postponed for two months. On April 28, before the pandemic accelerated, the forecast was an “end” on July 8.
“The evolution of covid-19 is not completely random. Like other pandemics, it follows a life cycle pattern from the outbreak to the acceleration phase, inflection point, deceleration phase, and eventual arrest or termination,” said the study on April 28.
For the world, the forecast is that the end will come on New Year’s Eve, December 31, which, in reality, may indicate that the pandemic should still extend until next year, considering the projection margins of error. . According to the graph, the peak of global contamination was in April.
Like Brazil, Mexico is still undergoing acceleration, and therefore the forecast may be less accurate for these locations. The country is also close to peaking before accelerating. India, Russia and Saudi Arabia are said to be experiencing their peak right now.
Check the projections for the most affected countries and the number of confirmed official deaths according to Johns Hopkins University on 08/05:
- United States: 76,032 confirmed deaths; expected end for 10/18
- United Kingdom: 31,315 confirmed deaths; expected end for 9/26
- Italy: 30,201 confirmed deaths; expected end for 10/22
- Spain: 26,070 confirmed deaths; expected end for 08/14
- France: 25,990 confirmed deaths; expected end for 08/22
- Brazil: 9,390 confirmed deaths; expected end for 12/29
Projections can change
The projection is continually updated as countries calculate new data, so it may change over time. Furthermore, the study also warns that the behavior of governments and people can influence the outcome and prolong or advance the peak and possible end of the disease.
“It is a hypothetical study based on the data we have to date and whose curve is updated daily based on the new data provided by the sources,” explains the specialist in infectious diseases at the Emílio Ribas hospital, Natanael Adiwardana.
“It is a perspective that changes daily. If it is realistic, we will only know when it ends because there are innumerable variables that may not be contained and have not yet been used by researchers. But it is a way of getting an idea of the potential impact.” disease on the community “, he evaluates.
At the time of the previous projection, which predicted the end of the pandemic in July, many Brazilian states had not yet adopted more restrictive measures of social isolation. This week, several cities decreed a blockade.
The same happened with the projections for Italy and even for Singapore. “Changed predictions of pandemic dates in Italy may be the result of government control measures and slightly relaxed human behavior in Italy last week. Pandemic curves in Singapore and Italy have changed over time as that real-world scenarios have changed dynamically, “says the study updated May 2.
Adiwardana explains that the population’s attitude towards social distance is what will determine the behavior of the curve.
“If the population increases the rate of social distance and we manage to control the rate of multiplication of disease and contamination, it may be that the peak ends up being much smaller, but as we will have a slower progression, this peak will naturally run more late “.
If we continue to behave this way today, the prediction may be this. If, on the contrary, everyone abandons the social distance, the prognosis may be even worse than reality will be “
Nathanael Adiwardana, infectious disease specialist at the Emílio Ribas hospital
On the website, the researchers themselves warn that such projections may contain errors. First, because it was designed and adapted to the reality of Singapore, the application in other countries can cause simplifications. Secondly, the behavior of governments and the population towards the disease can change and alter its cycle in the country.
The associate professor of epidemiology at the USP School of Public Health, Fredi Alexander Quijano, sees a discrepancy between the graphics and reality. “It seems that there were generalizations for all the countries, which would be a mistake. It is very difficult to predict the moment of the fall of the cases when we are still only having increases and when we know that there are problems and delays in the identification and notification of cases” , He says.
Elections and Enem
Whether or not it ends with the prediction made by the researchers, the reality is that the pandemic must still be present at important events on the Brazilian calendar this year, such as municipal elections, entrance exams, and the National High School Exam. (Enem).
So far, the government has decided not to postpone these events. Regarding Enem, the parliamentarians defend the approval of projects that aim to postpone the test, arguing that the interruption of face-to-face classes and the lack of Internet access in some places harm students. Education Minister Abraham Weintraub calls for the calendar to be maintained.
Elections also hold, but the government has already made adjustments to prevent voter displacement at this time. The cancellation of titles that have not yet made biometric data is suspended and irregular voters were able to resolve the situation via the Internet.
Is a total ending possible?
Quijano explains that very few diseases are eradicated, even with vaccination. In the case of the new coronavirus, we may have the same scenario as H1N1, in which we learn to live with the virus.
“We are already learning or we will have to learn to live with this risk of respiratory diseases. This pandemic is changing a lot the way we study, work, in relationships with others. We are already adapting to this situation,” he explains.
Judging by analogous situations, such as H1N1 and other communicable respiratory diseases, people may have to adapt to live with this risk and prevent transmission. “
Fredi Alexander Quijano, associate professor of epidemiology at the USP School of Public Health
People are unlikely to come back to life exactly before the pandemic. This pandemic opened our eyes to the need to expand the use of technology “
Nathanael Adiwardana, infectious disease specialist at the Emílio Ribas hospital
“The technology that was encountering great resistance in various areas, for example, telemedicine, the digitization of some media, some forms of work, some social relations, may have emerged. And some that already existed may intensify, so all this will change. within the health area, within the political area and within the economic area, “concludes Adiwardana.
