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The federal government is watching the US presidential race. President Jair Bolsonaro and his ministers at the Planalto Palace may not speak out, but there is concern about polls indicating the advantage of Democrat Joe Biden. It is said in the palace offices that a defeat of President Donald Trump has the potential to change not only the direction of Brazil’s foreign policy, but also domestic politics, especially in the way that Bolsonaro seeks to reap the fruits of their relationship. current with the Americans.
The ideological proximity between Bolsonaro and Trump has pleased the Bolsonarist electorate since the 2018 elections. On the solemnity of this year’s Sete de Setembro, held in front of the Palácio da Alvorada, for example, some supporters appeared with flags of Brazil, the United States. and even Israel (another nation with which the Brazilian government maintains a close relationship).
Bolsonaro, however, has no proximity to either Washington or the Republican Party. But yes, with Trump. A rise by Biden to the US presidency would therefore reconfigure the form of the federal government explores the image of an ally of the United States.
Most likely, Bolsonaro’s interlocutors will admit People’s GazetteIt would be the failure of the president to publicize foreign policy intensively. “It’s something that worries us, because we have no way of linking the image to Biden. Obviously, the relationship with the United States changes completely, ”says a source.
In Planalto, the assessment is that Bolsonaro would no longer use his social networks to create links with Washington and generate headlines, not even to avoid suffering some kind of retaliation from his own more faithful electoral base.
The government, therefore, would bet on a more institutional and less personal exposition in relation to the United States. It would adopt a more pragmatic foreign policy. I would try not to expose it in the media to concentrate diplomacy on the coaching staff.
Bolsonaro’s eventual nods to supporters, who see themselves as anti-Biden, could politically complicate Brazil in an eventual Democratic administration in the White House. And the country cannot risk creating friction with the United States, one of Brazil’s main trading partners.
The environment worries Biden in the White House
One point of particular concern to Planalto regarding a possible Biden government is environmental policy. The Democratic government program deals with the Amazon, for example. “Today, with Trump, the United States is somehow preventing a more ferocious attack on Brazil in our environmental policy. If Biden wins, especially considering his base is increasingly left, with the [senadora] Kamala harris [candidata à vice presidente], this subject will surely ignite ”, says a palatial interlocutor.
Among the Plateau military, resistance to Biden and US environmental policy is even more significant. Some comment that the influence among Democrats of Al Gore, who became an environmentalist when he left the US vice presidency in 2000, led to White House interference in the Amazon and other Brazilian biomes. “We certainly know that if the Democrats win, the change in American foreign policy will come,” says a palace adviser to the Armed Forces.
The reading is that, with the Democrats, Washington would come close to the position of Europeans to condemn the Brazilian government for what happens in the Amazon. “They are going to put pressure on the US market and international funds. They will move from the side of this group that has been pressing and working with distortion of the real information ”, says a source from Planalto.
5G and Covid vaccines could be affected by Biden’s victory
Another point that Biden’s choice could change in Brazil is about the adoption of 5G technology, which turned into a trade and diplomatic war between the United States and China.
Biden’s victory would change the context of the choice of technology that Brazil will adopt. Currently, Trump is pressing heavily on Plateau to curb Chinese participation in the 5G auctions, scheduled for 2021. Plateau’s bet is that this pressure would be eased considerably with Biden in the White House, to the point that Chinese companies have more competition space. Currently, with Trump in the White House, it is convenient for the government to defend anti-Chinese rhetoric.
The same reasoning applies to disputes between coronavirus vaccines. At least two from China are in advanced development, but the Brazilian bet is on the English / Swedish vaccine from the University of Oxford and the pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca.
Pragmatic foreign policy can favor the relationship
If in the political field government advisers view Biden’s tenure with pessimism, it does not usually prevail in the commercial field. If, on the one hand, Bolsonaro lost the “flag” displayed in his relationship with Trump, on the other hand, he would gain more space in important international forums for Brazil to participate. The evaluation is carried out by the political analyst Ricardo Mendes, managing partner of the consulting firm Prospectiva.
For Mendes, the Biden administration would open many more opportunities for cooperation with Brazil than Trump. “His own political platform points to that. If you read Biden’s government program, you will see that at various points his foreign policy focus is cooperation, and cooperation with partners, never alone. It is not a unilateralist vision, ”he says.
Mendes believes that the Brazilian government can hope, with Biden in the White House, that the United States will be more present in Latin America through strategic financing and diplomatic actions that favor free trade in the region. Trump, on the other hand, has been more isolationist.
The expert says that he believes that, with Biden, Brazil could be inserted in international forums that would open more space for Brazil in lines of credit and financing.
For the analyst, the election of Biden could even favor the entry of Brazil into the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), one of the main objectives of Bolsonaro’s foreign policy.
Mendes acknowledges that Biden’s environmental policy would clash with Bolsonaro’s, but does not identify a collision in the 5G trade war. “China is a problem for Biden, yes. The current president has stronger rhetoric, but I’d say the Democrat has a more strategic foreign policy team. They will look at the result, ”he says.
“It would be even easier to achieve this with him [Biden] than with Trump. If Brazil enters, there is a counterpart for the Europeans to put another [país na OCDE]. And Biden would have no problem with that, as I understand it, “he explains.
What are the odds of Biden and Trump?
Despite being ahead in the polls, the US electoral race remains open. Recent research by Fox News shows that Biden leads the voting preference with 51% of intentions, ahead of Trump, with 46%.
But the difference is at the limit of the margin of error. The place Very clear policy, which compiles polls from various institutes, suggests, however, that the Democrat appears ahead of the Republican in 10 states where the election was most contested in the last elections, such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan.
Polls in the United States, however, are difficult to read because of the American electoral system, the choice of which is decided by the electoral college and not by the vote of the citizens. If the result were just a popular vote, it would be possible to bet on Biden’s victory. But Trump still has a real chance of reelection.
Political analyst Lucas Fernandes, a specialist in government and international relations at BMJ Consultores Associados, estimates that Biden is already facing complications in his campaign. For him, the Democrat has little charisma and the Kamala ballot has a great rejection of the more moderate wing of the Democrats and the “independents.”
“Biden has a chance, yes. But you cannot put Trump as an unviable candidate, since the polarization is so great. What we try to verify is what the issue of presence at the polls is like ”, he reflects.
The Republican candidate has been making statements to delegitimize voting by mail, allowed in the United States. According to Fernandes, if there is a discredit in the vote by mail, Trump tends to benefit, since his voters are the ones who minimize the risk of coronavirus the most. However, he acknowledges that until the elections, the pandemic may be more under control. Therefore, more Democratic voters would be encouraged to vote in person.
