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The government of Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) sent to the National Congress a proposal for a minimum wage of R $ 1,067 in 2021, leaving the minimum without real increase for the second consecutive year. The projection is part of the PLOA (Draft Annual Budget Law).
In relation to the current R $ 1,045, the increase is R $ 22, an amount that should only restore the inflation projected for 2020, measured by the INPC (National Consumer Price Index), of 2.09%. In practice, it means that the minimum wage will remain unchanged for two years.
The forecast for the minimum wage in 2021 is R $ 12 less than the one presented in the PLDO (Law of Budgetary Guidelines). When it sent the proposal to Congress on April 15, the government estimated that the salary floor in 2021 would be R $ 1,079, due to the 3.29% projection of the INPC at that time.
Real increase ended last year
From 2007 to 2019, the law guaranteed that the minimum wage would have a real increase, above inflation, provided there was economic growth, within the minimum wage valuation policy of the PT administrations.
This calculation formula took into account the inflation of the previous year, measured by the INPC, plus the result of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product) of two years before.
The formula became invalid last year and the Bolsonaro government decided not to replace it with another minimum wage policy. With that, the government began to readjust the minimum only for inflation, obeying what the Constitution determines.
Lower forecast for high GDP
The Budget proposal also reduces the estimate for economic growth for 2021, from 3.3% to 3.2%.
In addition to expecting lower GDP growth next year, the Bolsonaro government lowered the estimate of official inflation in 2021, measured by the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index). The projection went from 3.65% to 3.24%.
In 2020, a year heavily impacted by the new coronavirus pandemic, the government expects a 4.7% drop in GDP. The projection is more optimistic than that of the market, which foresees a decrease of 5.28%.
Largest gap in public accounts
The forecast for a gap in public accounts in 2021 has increased since April. Before, the projection of primary leakage was 149.61 billion and now it has increased to R $ 233.6 billion. It will be the eighth consecutive year of the country’s primary deficit.
Now, the outlook is for net income of R $ 1,283 billion in 2021, a decrease of R $ 97.3 billion compared to the amount calculated in April. Expenses for next year, in turn, were estimated at R $ 1,517 billion, a decrease of R $ 13.3 billion on the same basis of comparison.
For the consolidated public sector, which includes the federal government, state companies, and states and municipalities, the outlook is for a deficit of R $ 237.3 billion in 2021.
R $ 453.7 billion depends on the approval of Congress
The public spending ceiling for next year will be R $ 1.485 trillion, calculated based on the 2020 ceiling, adjusted for inflation in the 12 months ended in June of this year.
According to the project, R $ 453,715 billion will be missing for the payment of Social Security benefits, personnel expenses, union supplements to Fundeb, among others. The release of this money will depend on the approval of a complementary loan by Congress.
(With Reuters and Agência Estado)
