Biden elected: what changes, in practice, in the fight against climate change with the new government

But the key to its credibility on the international stage will be based on its internal policies to reduce carbon emissions.

Left-wing Democrats, like Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, introduced a proposal called the Green New Deal, a clean energy infrastructure investment program that aims to largely eliminate carbon emissions.

Biden’s climate plan is more moderate. But if enacted, it would still be the most aggressive climate strategy the United States has ever used.

Biden proposes making America’s energy production carbon-free by 2035 and bringing the country to net zero emissions by mid-century.

Reaching net zero requires that carbon emissions are balanced by absorbing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere, for example by planting trees.

Once in office, Biden wants to spend $ 2 billion (R $ 10.8 billion) in four years to reduce emissions, modifying four million buildings to make them more energy efficient.

It promises to spend a lot on public transport, invest in the manufacture of electric vehicles and charging points and offer consumers financial incentives to change their current cars for less polluting versions.

All these options have an additional component in addition to reducing carbon: they create jobs.

Andrew Light, a former senior climate policy official in the Obama administration, says Biden is focused on reducing emissions and unemployment at the same time. “There will be a set of initiatives in different sectors.”

Biden also said it would not allow hydraulic fracturing on federal lands, a controversial technique for producing natural gas and oil known as fracking in English and which is condemned by environmentalists for using chemicals to extract these fuels from rocks, which could affect the subsoil.

However, since approximately 90% are on state or private land, the vast majority fracking it will not be affected.

The Paris Agreement sought to keep global temperatures rising “well below” 2 ° C this century, but in 2018, scientists from the United Nations Organization (UN) stressed that it would be important to limit the increase to 1.5 ° C.

This can prevent small island countries from submerging, protect millions of people from disasters caused by extreme weather events, and limit the chances of the Arctic melting in the summer.

Scientists say that Biden’s goal of achieving net zero emissions by mid-century could have significant implications for the 1.5 ° C goal.

“With the election of Biden, China, the United States, the European Union, Japan, South Korea – two-thirds of the world economy and more than 50% of global greenhouse gas emissions – would have [compromissos para zerar] net greenhouse gas emissions through mid-century, “calculates Bill Hare, part of the Climate Action Tracker, which monitors global emission reduction plans.” This could be a historic turning point. “

For the first time, this brings the 1.5 ° C limit of the Paris Agreement within reach, he says.

A Democrat will occupy the White House, but the Republican Party currently controls the Senate and has so far been very reluctant to spend money to stimulate the economy, despite the pandemic.

That position could change if, as some predict, in January, the second round of elections in Georgia gives Democrats control of the Senate.

Even if not, there are still reasons for Biden to believe that the Senate may be open to endorsing some of his climate plans.

Although Trump has taken an anti-climate change approach, there has been a softening of the rhetoric of some Republicans in recent years and there are already precedents for cross-party cooperation.

In September, Democrats and Republicans collaborated on a bill to reduce the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), a family of gases commonly used for refrigeration, which includes some of the most powerful greenhouse gases known to science.

In the same month, the Senate also passed a bill called the Bipartisan Wildlife Preservation Act, which aims to enhance the preservation of species and protect vital ecosystems.

Biden also knows better than most how to deal with the Senate: He was elected senator six times before becoming Barack Obama’s vice president.

If the now-elected president can structure his plans in a way that creates jobs and new infrastructure, while controlling carbon emissions, he can find a way that works for both sides of the House.

“I think there may be a lot of common ground around good policies that also have climate implications,” says Katie Tubb, senior policy analyst at the Conservative Heritage Foundation.

If Biden can’t reach an agreement on legislation with the Senate, he will have to issue executive orders, repeating Obama and Trump.

Trump used them to roll back dozens of environmental regulations on oil and gas production and on standards for cars and trucks.

Many of these setbacks are expected to be reversed early in the Biden administration. But the weakness of this strategy is that it can be legally challenged.

Obama had to use executive orders to try to implement a key climate policy, the Clean Power Plan, but the Supreme Court ultimately struck down the orders.

If the president-elect follows this same path, the Supreme Court, now with a conservative majority, could represent a potential obstacle.

Trump’s decision to remove the United States from the Paris Agreement took effect on November 4, the day after the 2020 elections.

A month after the Biden administration briefed the United Nations on its decision to return to the pact, the United States will once again be part of the global effort to curb climate change, much to the delight of climate diplomats.

“It would definitely be a positive move, not only because the United States is a great player, but because it reinforces the fact that it believes in the science of climate change,” said Carlos Fuller, chief negotiator for the Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis, English) at the annual UN climate meetings.

These annual meetings are the mechanism by which countries agree to reduce carbon emissions. And American leadership is absolutely critical in this process.

With China, Japan and South Korea setting long-term goals, expectations are being raised that the UN climate summit, COP26, to be held in Glasgow, Scotland, in November 2021, could be a success. .

The UK government, which will lead the Glasgow negotiations, will advocate that all countries update their national carbon reduction plans with stricter targets than those presented in 2015 and that as many nations as possible commit to net emissions. . zero by 2050.

These goals are more likely to be achieved with the return of the United States to the side of advocates for ambitious action to combat climate change, under the presidency of Joe Biden.