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Talking about polls for the US presidential elections arouses great suspicion. Especially when Donald Trump is one of the candidates. In 2016, she went against all expectations and defeated the big favorite, Hillary Clinton, named leader in virtually every poll and projection.
True, in terms of the popular vote, she even took the lead, but America’s polling station system favored the Republican candidate.
Four years later, he reappears in second place, this time at an even greater disadvantage. Virtually all of the research from the major institutes points to Joe Biden with a wide advantage (see figures below).
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However, the result should take time to confirm. This year, the vote count is expected to take longer.
This is because some states only begin counting votes that arrive in the mail after the polls close. As it is necessary to validate the authenticity of the ballot and, in 2020, there was an increase in this type of voting, the delay is predicted by the majority of US electoral analysts.
As of Monday, more than 95 million early votes had been cast, including more than 60.4 million by mail.
Who is Joe Biden, candidate of the Democratic Party for the presidency of the United States?
Two sites with average searches confirm Biden’s advantage considering data collected through November 1. In Real Clear Politics, the Democrat has 50.7 points, while Trump appears with 43.9, a difference of 6.8.
In Five Thirty Eight, the difference is greater: 51.7% for Biden and 43.4% for Trump, a distance of 8.4%. In the latter, a graph shows that since March, the president has never been ahead of his opponent, although he had a difference of only 3.4% in April and was 10.7% behind in mid-October.
Average searches for US president – Photo: Aparecido Gonçalves / G1
The two sites also make comparisons between the three states that can decide the choice. Among those with the most delegates at Electoral College, Texas, Florida and Pennsylvania are those with the most heated disputes and can make a big difference this year..
In Texas, which traditionally yields its 38 delegates to Republicans, Trump leads, but the lead is small and there may be a surprise. According to Real Clear Politics, the average of the polls conducted between October 20 and 30 shows a difference of only 1.2 points, with 47.7 for Trump and 46.5 for Biden. Meanwhile, Five Thirty Eight reduces the distance to 1 point: 48.5% for the President and 47.5% for the Democrat November 1st.
Average searches in Texas – Photo: Aparecido Gonçalves / G1
He too Florida, generally another Republican stronghold and the state where Trump votes, could see the party be established in 2020 and hand over its 29 delegates to Democrats. Real Clear Politics calculates, adding data from October 24 to November 1, that Biden has an advantage of 1.7 points, leading by 48.3 against 46.6 of the opponent. According to Five Thirty Eight, the advantage is greater: 2.5, with 48.8 for the Democrat and 46.4 for the Republican.
Average searches from Florida – Photo: Aparecido Gonçalves / G1
Finally, the hotly contested 20 Pennsylvania delegates, if the polls are confirmed, will stay with Biden. Real Clear Politics evaluated the polls from November 27 to 2 and calculated that it has, on average, 49.2 points, compared to Trump’s 46.3, an advantage of 2.9. Five Thirty Eight confirms favoritism, but in even greater numbers: 50.2 to 45.4, that is, 4.8 difference.
Average searches in Pennsylvania – Photo: Aparecido Gonçalves / G1
Projection with bad searches
The “New York Times” newspaper, for its part, maintains a website that collects the investigations that are published daily throughout the country. On Monday (2), the eve of the elections, There were 64 surveys, including state and national ones., carried out by different institutions.
Trump came out ahead in 11 polls, all statewide: in Georgia, Missouri, South Carolina, Indiana, Michigan, twice in Pennsylvania and four times in Ohio.
US President Donald Trump during a rally at Cherry Capital Airport in Traverse City, Michigan on Monday (2) – Photo: AP Photo / Evan Vucci
Biden, in addition to leading in a few other states, also has a huge advantage in national polls: gets 12 or 13 points of advantage.
In its projections, the site makes an important observation and calculates not only how many delegates each candidate would have if the polls were confirmed “perfectly” – 351 for Biden and 187 for Trump – but also what would happen if “the polls are as wrong as in 2016”, that is, in the same margin of error as they had in the last elections. In this case, project, Biden would still be elected, winning 335 delegates, to Trump’s 203.
On Monday (2), the day that Trump and Biden held their last rallies, the president attacked the polls, disdaining the numbers that do not favor him. “I see these bogus searches,” he told a crowd in Fayetteville, North Carolina. “We are going to win anyway,” he added.
Who is Donald Trump, candidate of the Republican Party for the presidency of the United States?
On the eve of the election, they both focused on Pennsylvania, which is probably the most decisive state this year. In 2016, Trump won there with 44,000 votes, less than 1%., and now research indicates an advantage for Biden, who was born there.
Pennsylvania could also become the center of controversy, as it is one of the states where the Supreme Court allowed the counting of votes received by mail up to three days after the election. provided they have been shipped before the November 3 deadline.
According to the Axios website, Trump would have intended to declare victory before adding up those votes and then challenging them in court. The president did not confirm the theory, but said: “I think it is terrible that we cannot know the results of an election on election night … we will go at night, as soon as the election is over, we will go in with our lawyers.”
Videos: 2020 U.S. elections