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(Fake images)
SÃO PAULO – The Central Bank’s Economic Activity Index (IBC-Br), considered an advance of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the monetary authority, increased by 0.86% in October compared to September.
However, the number was below expectations: The expectation of economists, according to the median projection in Bloomberg research, was an increase of 1.05% in the monthly comparison. The fall in the annual comparison base was 2.61%; the expectation was a minimum of 2%.
After the strong retraction in the months of March and April, in the midst of the new coronavirus pandemic, Brazilian economic activity presented the sixth consecutive month of increase.
The effects of the new coronavirus pandemic on the economy, despite being perceived in February, have intensified around the world since March. To contain the death toll, Brazil has adopted social isolation in much of the territory, which has impacted economic activity. The negative effects were noted mainly in March and April. In recent months, however, IBC-Br has shown a reaction.
From September to October, the activity index calculated by BC went from 135.59 points to 136.75 points in the seasonally adjusted series. This is the highest level since February this year (140.07 points).
In the comparison between the months of October 2020 and October 2019, there was a decrease of 2.61% in the series without seasonal adjustments. This series finished with the IBC-Br at 139.37 points in October.
Accumulated in the year
The IBC-Br accumulated a fall of 4.92% in the year to October, informed the Central Bank. The percentage refers to the series without seasonal adjustments. In the same series, the IBC-Br registered a decrease of 3.93% in the 12 months ended in October.
The effects of the new coronavirus pandemic on the economy, despite being perceived in February, have intensified around the world since March. To contain the death toll, Brazil has adopted social isolation in much of the territory, which has impacted economic activity. The negative effects were noted mainly in March and April. In recent months, however, IBC-Br has shown a reaction.
The Central Bank also reported that the IBC-Br registered an increase of 6.46% in the accumulated increase for the quarter ended in October 2020, compared to the previous three months (May to July), due to the seasonally adjusted series.
On the other hand, the BC reported that the IBC-Br accumulated a fall of 2.65% in the quarter until October 2020 compared to the same period of 2019, due to the series without seasonal adjustments.
Reviews
The CB reviewed the IBC-Br data on the sidelines, in the adjusted series. The September index went from + 1.29% to + 1.68%, while the August index went from + 1.39% to + 1.63%.
In the case of July, the index went from + 3.77% to + 2.42%. The June figure went from + 5.38% to + 5.23% and that of May went from + 1.68% to + 2.15%. In relation to April, the Central Bank changed the indicator from -9.23% to -9.46%. In the case of March, from -5.89% to -6.01%.
Known as a kind of “BC GDP preview”, the IBC-Br serves more precisely as a parameter to assess the pace of the Brazilian economy over the months. BC’s current projection for domestic activity in 2020 has been lowered by 5.0%. This calculation will be updated next Thursday through the Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI).
In the Focus Market Report published by the BC on Monday, the projection is for a 4.41% drop in GDP in 2020. Focus brings together the projections of economists on the financial market.
(with Agência Estado)
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