After a draw with Cuiabá, Cruzeiro is more likely to be relegated to Serie C than to return to Serie A – Sports



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The goalless draw with Cuiabá, this Tuesday (29), in Independência, for the 32nd round of Serie B of the Brazilian Championship, leaves Cruzeiro with more chances of being relegated to Serie C than of accessing Serie A This is what the numbers from the website Probabilities in Football show, maintained by the Department of Mathematics of the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG).

Both possibilities are very remote, however, the calculations of the UFMG mathematicians are that Raposa has a 0.40% chance of returning to the elite. On the other hand, the probabilities of falling are 0.87.

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Before the draw against the Cuiabanos, Cruzeiro already needed a miracle to return to the First Division. Now, it depends on access marks that only happened twice, in 14 editions, to continue with a chance of returning to the elite.

With 41 points and 18 more to compete, Luiz Felipe Scolari’s team can only reach 59. In Serie B by points in a row, which has been played since 2006, this figure was enough for a team to rise in 2008 and 2007, when the mark was even lower (57).

With the result, Cruzeiro is eight points behind the G-4, the group that guarantees its presence in Serie A next year. But on Wednesday (30), this number can go up to 11. This is the case if Juventude, who occupies the fourth position, wins the Ponte Preta, in a match that will be played at 5:00 p.m., at the Alfredo Jaconi Stadium, in Caxias do Sul.

This would leave Raposa with the need to take 11 points against the G-4 in six rounds, a practically impossible task due mainly to the recent retrospective of Luiz Felipe Scolari’s team in the competition.

In the last six games, Cruzeiro won only one, against Vitória, in Barradão, in Salvador, on December 11 for the 28th round.

Of the 18 points disputed, only seven were won, giving a 38.9% advantage.

Degradation

Since his arrival at Toca da Raposa II, Luiz Felipe Scolari has always stressed that the objective was to prevent the team from falling in the Series C of the Brazilian Championship, because when he took over, instead of Ney Franco, Cruzeiro was in the relegation zone.

The possibility of a fall is very remote, but anyway, the fight at Cruzeiro in the final stretch of this Serie B seems to be really against the fall to Second Division.



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