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“Decreeing the calamity takes pressure off, don’t you think?” Said a financial market executive in the column when commenting on the extra friendly fire that Paulo Guedes has received, in recent days, after the economic team shouted. that the Budget approved by Congress is not being maintained and that the Minister of Economy went to President Bolsonaro to tell him that the law is inapplicable, with the risk of impeachment.
If the decree of the state of calamity was already taken for granted before the approval of the Budget, due to the severity of the pandemic, with the law approved with R $ 31 billion in additional parliamentary amendments based on underestimated projections, it was inevitable. A matter of a little more time for the plot that has been developing by leaps and bounds since the election of the presidents of the House and Senate.
Before the Budget vote, the problem in the economic area was to make contingencies of at least R $ 20 billion to accommodate the impact of changes in the economic parameters. After its approval, the problems multiplied.
Now, the room for maneuver, which Budget managers always keep in the drawer as a guarantee to curb extra pressure, will be consumed to honor the government’s agreement with Congress to guarantee the additional R $ 16.5 billion in parliamentary amendments within of the budget.
The main letter that was kept up his sleeve was precisely the possibility of extra savings with measures to combat fraud and reduce the expenses of the INSS that are about to leave, with the possibility that the expenses with Social Security are below than expected, as happened last year. . Scenario that will only be clarified later. Parliamentarians, by voting on a ready-made budget, anticipated this move by force.
Let’s see the sequence:
The target of criticism, Guedes says he was informed of the agreement made by the government. The rapporteur Márcio Bittar denies and says that he discussed everything with the Guedes team. In reaction, Centrão leaders and other authorities directed artillery against the minister, with criticism accumulating in the reserved rooms of Brasilia.
The observation of many leaders, and that feeds the political artillery to Guedes, is the following: if it was communicated and did nothing, the minister supported, in practice, the agreement and his team was in the negotiation, yes, to do it feasible. There is no possibility of retiring now.
The president of the Chamber, Arthur Lira, does not renounce his commitment and points out as a counterpoint that he is a politician who complies with the agreements reached. Guedes will have to comply with the agreement, even if the budget area of his team points out problems and the contingency is necessary. That is the certainty and Guedes declared that he accepts.
The minister could not try to circumvent the amendment agreement, which, incidentally, guaranteed the emergency PEC with a device that gives the President of the Republic private power to propose to Congress the decree of public calamity at the national level, not allowing the Parliament do it, do it unilaterally.
In this way, we return again to the initial problem, the calamity decree, which suspends the tax rules for the realization of expenses and removes the “annoyance” that is for the political world, including Bolsonaro, this “talk” all about the area financially, which cannot and cannot do this due to the LRF and the spending ceiling.
One of the most urgent points of the moment to feed the pressure is the relaunch of the program to reduce working hours and wages or the suspension of the workers’ contract, called BEm, which is currently on hold. All due to a legal provision that requires compensation for the expenses derived from the creation of a new program, as shown in State. The BEm will be the trigger that the president lacked to call for calamity.
Strong articulation runs abroad to guarantee the renewal of guarantees for Pronampe, a credit program for small businesses. Leaders of one of the sectors most affected by the isolation measures, bars and restaurants, anticipate that 80% of companies will not be able to pay the salaries of their employees that expire on April 5. They have the support of the Bolsonaro family, which is articulated behind the scenes. Guedes said this week: In 2021, extraordinary measures are needed for “a fierce tail” from the current pandemic.
The question at the beginning of the column is already answered.
SPECIAL ECONOMIC REPORTER IN BRASILIA
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