Inflation measured by the IPCA accelerates and rises by 0.86% in February, above market expectations

Official inflation in the country, measured by the National Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), increased by 0.86% in February 2021 compared to January, according to data from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) published on Tuesday (9). It’s the biggest increase for the month since 2016.

The IPCA accumulated an increase of 1.11% in the year and, in 12 months, of 5.20%, above the 4.56% observed in the immediately previous 12 months.

The estimate, according to the Refinitiv consensus, rose 0.72% compared to January, after previous data with a rise of 0.25%. Based on the comparison with February 2020, the expectation was an increase of 5.06%.

With an increase of 7.11%, gasoline was, individually, the item that most impacted the index in the month, with a share close to 42% in the final result (0.36 pp). “We have seen increases in the price of gasoline, which occur in refineries, but part of it ends up passing to the final consumer. At the beginning of February, for example, we had an increase of 8%, and after more than 10%. These subsequent increases in the price of fuel explain this increase, ”says research director Pedro Kislanov.

In addition to gasoline, the prices of ethanol (8.06%), diesel (5.40%) and vehicular gas (0.69%) also rose. As a result, fuels accumulated an increase of 28.44% in the last nine months. In February, the transportation group increased 2.28%.

Education (2.48%) had the greatest variation between groups. The greatest impact of the group came from regular courses (3.08%). “This was the second biggest impact within the index for the month. In February, we captured the readjustments in tuition fees charged by educational institutions. And furthermore, we found that in some cases there was a withdrawal of discounts applied during the last year in the context of the suspension of face-to-face classes due to the pandemic ”, explains the researcher.

The group of food and beverages changed 0.27% in February, slowing down for the third consecutive month. The fall in the prices of potatoes (-14.70%), tomatoes (-8.55%), long-life milk (-3.30%), soybean oil (-3.15%) and rice (-1.52%) contributed to the slowdown in food. at home (0.28%). There was an increase in the price of onion (15.59%) and meat (1.72%).

“This deceleration from January to February is mainly explained by some items that had risen significantly during the last year, such as soybean oil and rice. On the other hand, meats had a slight deflation in January, with a fall of 0.08%, and now they have risen again ”, says Kislanov.

Eating out slowed down, from 0.91% in January to 0.27% in February, mainly due to the variation in snacks (0.11%), which had increased by 1.83% in the previous month.

The increase in prices reached the 16 regions surveyed in the HICP. The highest result was the metropolitan area of ​​Fortaleza (1.48%), mainly impacted by the 8.86% increase in regular courses. The lowest was registered in Rio de Janeiro (0.38%), influenced by the fall in the prices of air tickets (-10.73%) and transportation by application (-16.5%).

INPC

The National Consumer Price Index – INPC for February, on the other hand, increased by 0.82%, above the rate in January, when it had registered 0.27%. This is the highest one-month result in February since 2016, when the index was 0.95%.

Food rose 0.17% in February while in the previous month they had registered 1.01%. Non-food products increased 1.03%, after varying 0.03% in January. All the surveyed areas had inflation in February, with an emphasis on Fortaleza (1.52%).

In the year, the INPC accumulated an increase of 1.09% and, in the last 12 months, 6.22%, above the 5.53% registered in the immediately previous 12 months. In February 2020, the rate was 0.17%.

The INPC calculation refers to households with monetary incomes of one to five minimum wages, the head being a salaried worker, and covering ten metropolitan regions of the country, in addition to the municipalities of Goiânia, Campo Grande, Rio Branco, São Luís, Aracaju and Brasilia. The IPCA covers families earning between one and 40 times the minimum wage, regardless of the source.

(with the IBGE News Agency)

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