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SÃO PAULO – The Ibovespa rises on Thursday (11) after three consecutive falls. The index follows international stock markets following Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech the day before, in which he stated that the US central bank’s monetary policy must remain “patiently accommodative,” reinforcing the need for more. economic stimuli for the resumption. full employment.
There, we also highlight the consumer inflation index (CPI), which registered an increase of 0.04% in December, which led the annual comparison to fall from 1.5% to 1.4%. The Japanese markets have not opened today and the Chinese are closed for a week due to the Lunar New Year celebrations.
Here, the Chamber of Deputies approved the bill that guarantees the formal autonomy of the Central Bank by 339 votes to 114. The text has already been approved by the Senate and now passes for presidential approval. Despite the victory on this liberal agenda, there is still some concern about the possibility that the government will break the spending ceiling to extend emergency aid.
Read also
• BC autonomy guarantees progress despite new monetary policy goals, economists say
• After the approval of autonomy, Campos Neto can be the president with the longest service in BC
• There are downside risks to the US economy, says the Fed Chairman.
Among the indicators, the service sector remained stable, with a slight negative variation of 0.2% in December compared to November, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) showed. The median expectation of economists compiled by Refinitiv was a growth of 0.4%. In 2020, the drop in the services sector was 7.8%.
At 10:09 am (Brasilia time), the Ibovespa was up 0.69% to 119,250 points.
Meanwhile, the commercial dollar fell 0.45% to R $ 5.3457 in the purchase and R $ 5.3467 in the sale. The US dollar due in March fell 0.82% to R $ 5,347.
In the future interest market, the DI of January 2022 falls by a basis point of 3.36%, the DI of January 2023 rises two basis points to 4.90%, the DI of January 2025 operates stable at 6 , 41% and the DI of January 2027 registered a negative variation of a base point of 7.09%.
Returning to the United States, Powell said yesterday that the country is still far from the sweet spot in terms of employment, even though the economy has regained more than 12 million jobs since the start of the Covid pandemic. The unemployment rate fell from a peak of 14.8% in 2020 to 6.3%. Still, 10 million Americans are still out of work, 4.4 million more than before the pandemic began.
Additionally, the impeachment process against former Republican President Donald Trump continued on Wednesday. The Democratic congressmen responsible for the process in the House presented a timeline in which they demonstrated that Trump was “solely responsible” for inciting the attack on the Capitol, the seat of the US Legislature, which left 5 dead in January.
The congressmen showed video footage of the group of invaders shouting “hang up Mike Pence” as they searched for the then vice president. In another video, a police officer shot through a broken window, killing one of the protesters, Ashli Babbitt, while trying to enter the building. Other scenes show evacuated congressmen, narrowly escaping the mob.
Central Bank autonomy
On Wednesday, the Chamber of Deputies approved the bill that guarantees autonomy to the Central Bank, a day after the urgency of its processing was approved. The text has already been approved by the Senate.
Among other points, it determines that the president of the Central Bank should have a term of four years, not coinciding with the term of the president of the Republic, in an attempt to protect the body from political pressure. The document also establishes the staggered replacement of the other directors of the institution. Now it goes to presidential sanction.
The independence of the Central Bank has been defended since 1991 in Congress, and is part of the list of priority agendas delivered by the government of Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) to the new president of the Chamber of Deputies, Arthur Lira (PP-AL) and the new president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM-MG). Its approval is a victory for the government’s economic team, led by Paulo Guedes.
In a note, the Central Bank noted that: “By its very nature, monetary policy requires a long-term horizon, due to the gap between policy decisions and their impact on economic activity and inflation. Instead, the political cycle has a shorter-term horizon ”.
In addition, the Chamber also concluded, on Wednesday, the vote on the bill that makes a series of changes in the Brazilian exchange market, and opens the way for individuals to maintain accounts in foreign currency in Brazil. Now, the text, which is one of the priorities of the president of the Central Bank, Roberto Campos Neto, goes to the Senate. The project also increases the autonomy of the Central Bank to regulate the foreign exchange market.
The return of aid is still on the radar
Newspaper publications once again focus on the possible repayment of emergency aid. The idea of financing the program through tax increases weakened the day before. This is because, in addition to political obstacles, there would be legal restrictions.
Although the economic team defends the spending reduction measures, the president of the Senate, Rodrigo Pacheco, says that the issue of a new War Amendment Proposal (PEC) is being discussed.
Lira, on the other hand, defended to “exceptionalize” the benefit spending, given, in his opinion, its urgency and the absence of a voted budget, but defended the reforms and the spending ceiling.
It should be noted that the government issued a Provisional Measure that makes the granting of credit more flexible. Until June 30, the requirement to present negative certificates in the contracting and renegotiation of credit with public or private financial institutions is suspended.
Also in political affairs, on Wednesday, Vice President Hamilton Mourão affirmed that, with the end of Operation Verde Brasil 2, and with the end of Operation Guarantee of Law and Order carried out by the Armed Forces, the government will limit the inspection. of environmental crimes in the region to 11 municipalities in four states. The Verde Brasil 2 operation has been operating since May 2020, at a cost of R $ 420 million, and is expected to close at the beginning of May of this year.
The acceleration of deforestation in the Amazon is the target of criticism abroad. The current president of the United States, Joe Biden, promised during the campaign to pressure Brazil as a way to protect the forest. According to a report published on Monday (8) by the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo, there is pressure from the Democratic Party and activists to create sanctions against the Brazilian government.
But, at first, Biden should bet on the creation of a protection program that involves the Treasury, the State Department and the international cooperation agencies USAID and DFC, with the participation of Brazil and other interested countries.
According to Mourão’s announcement, as of May, the fight against deforestation will no longer be supported by military forces, and will be carried out by employees of the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources (Ibama) and the Chico Mendes Conservation Institute. . . Biodiversity (ICMBio). Mourão is president of the National Council of the Amazon, recreated by the Bolsonaro government about a year ago.
Corporate radar
The results season continues with Suzano’s outstanding figures: the pulp and paper producer had a net profit of R $ 5.914 billion in the fourth quarter of last year, a strong jump compared to the positive result of R $ 1.175 billion registered in the same period. 2019. Performance was supported by a jump in the company’s positive financial result, driven by foreign exchange gains and derivatives. The line went from R $ 1.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to R $ 6.2 billion in the three months ended last December. An operating improvement with a drop in the cost of pulp production also helped the group’s overall result.
Suzano also completed the capture of earnings from synergies with Fibria, reaching, at the end of 2020, recurring earnings estimated at R $ 1.3 billion before taxes.
Banrisul’s profit fell 41.5% in the fourth quarter of 2020 compared to the same period of 2019, reaching R $ 232 million. In the fourth quarter, the financial margin was R $ 1,462.4 billion, an 18% increase compared to the immediately previous quarter. Provisions for losses were R $ 401.3 million, 25.6% more than in the third quarter. The 90-day delinquency rate was 2.31% in December 2020, a decrease of 1.06 percentage points in twelve months or 0.67 percentage points in three months.
Raízen, a joint venture between Cosan and Shell, struck a deal with IMC on Wednesday to open units of the Frango Assado chain at Shell stations and to migrate IMC stations to Shell. IMC has 19 stations under the BR, Ale and Ipiranga flags, and owns the Frango Assado brand, with 25 units in Brazil.
Regarding Vale, Valor reports that a group formed to represent those affected by the failure of the Córrego do Feijão dam, in Brumadinho (MG), submitted a request to the Federal Supreme Court (STF) to suspend the approval of the agreement made between Vale and the government of Minas Gerais last week. The rapporteur has not yet been chosen to evaluate the request.
Still in the spotlight, Cruzeiro do Sul and Westwing make their public debut.
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