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Fluminense, Santos and Corinthians aim for seventh place in the Brazilian Championship, which could yield a place for Libertadores 2021
The finalists of the Brazil Cup are already known. Palmeiras and Grêmio dispute the title and this could be good news for Fluminense, Santos and Corinthians. Depending on the performance of Alviverde and Tricolor Gaúcho in Brasileirão, the seventh place in the national championship will also compete in the Libertadores in 2021.
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The first six of the Brasileirão qualify for the Libertadores. After 27 rounds, Grêmio and Palmeiras are in this group, ranking fifth and sixth, respectively. If the Brazilian Cup champion is in the G6 at the end of the Brazilian Championship, a seventh place will be opened. Whoever stays with it will compete in the pre-group stages of the international tournament.
With ten rounds remaining for the end of the Brasileirão, the table looks like this:
According to the UFMG Soccer Department, 17 of the 20 Serie A clubs still have a chance of qualifying for Libertadores, although five of them have less than 1% chance of playing in the next edition of the tournament and would need a miracle in the final rounds of the Brasileirão.
On the other hand, two clubs are already practically guaranteed in the South American tournament. São Paulo and Flamengo, leader and vice-leader respectively, have more than 95% chances of guaranteeing their place in Libertadores 2021. Tricolor do Morumbi, in fact, is already practically classified. See the qualification odds for the Libertadores:
| TIME | PROBABILITY (%) | CLASSIFICATION (27TH ROUND) |
|---|---|---|
| Saint Paul | 99.95 | 1st |
| Flamengo | 95.6 | 2nd |
| Athletic-MG | 94.8 | 3rd |
| Guild | 86.9 | 5th |
| International | 84.6 | 4th |
| Palms | 70.6 | 6th |
| Fluminense | 25.3 | 7th |
| Corinthians | 19.2 | 9th |
| Saints | 16.6 | 8th |
| Ceara | 5.5 | 10th |
| Athletic-PR | 2.4 | 11th |
| Athletic-GO | 1.9 | 12th |
| Red Bull Bragantino | 0.19 | 13th |
| Strength | 0.15 | 14th |
| Basque | 0.13 | 17th |
| Sport | 0.095 | 15th |
| Bay | 0.038 | 16th |
The UFMG Soccer Department estimates that teams that reach 58 points in the Brasileirão have more than almost a 65% chance of qualifying for Libertadores.
In 2019, the Brazilian Championship qualified eight teams. This happened because Flamengo was national champion and Libertadores, opening a seventh place. Athletico-PR, champion of the Brazilian Cup, finished the competition in fifth place. Thus, São Paulo (sixth place), had a direct place for the group stage and Internacional and Corinthians (seventh and eighth, respectively) played the pre-Libertadores.
There is still the possibility of a G8 in 2020/21. Palmeiras and Santos are in the semifinals of the Libertadores and if one of the teams is the South American champion and the Brasileirão finishes in the top seven (in addition to the Copa do Brasil champion), the eighth place of the Brasileirão is classified.
