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WASHINGTON – The United States House of Representatives, led by the Democratic Party, approved this Monday, by 275 to 134 votes, President Donald Trump’s proposal for the payment of US $ 2,000 in aid for people affected by the pandemic of Covid. -19, sending the movement into an uncertain future in the Republican-controlled Senate.
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– This American aid package ensures a smooth transition at an important time, the start of mass vaccination. It can be a strategic foundation for a sustained recovery of the US economy, with impacts around the world, said Adriano Laureno, senior economist at Prospectiva Consultoria.
Mauro Rochlin, MBA professor at FGV, believes that the package also indirectly benefits Brazil, expanding liquidity in the world at a time when the country needs a great effort to refinance its debt:
– Since the US stimulus is a check in your pocket, it has a direct impact on aggregate demand, helping the US economy. Given that it still represents 25% of the world economy, a positive impact on trade and investment is expected.
During Monday’s vote, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, gave a message to the Republican Party:
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– Republicans have the option of voting in favor of this legislation or voting to deny Americans the greater resources they need.
On Trump’s support, a rare point of agreement between him and Democrats, Rep. Dan Kildee said they would have included greater value in the legislation if the president had spoken earlier:
– But it’s never too late to do the right thing.
Trump’s defense of a $ 2,000 check stunned Democrats. They already wanted a higher value, but they faced resistance from the Republicans.
Republican Congressman Kevin Brady argued that the $ 2,000 will not help people return to their jobs. According to him, the United States runs the risk of “spending hastily” without helping Americans who really need it.
The Treasury Department plans to begin shipping the $ 600 checks later this week, as originally planned, an agency official said.
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– If vaccines work, as I believe, this American package will be a substantial part of the resumption. Society will go from near depression to euphoria very quickly, said José Márcio Camargo, chief economist at Genial Investimentos. – This American package adds to a better scenario in Asia and a vaccination moment in Europe.
Last week, Trump threatened to block aid if Congress didn’t increase stimulus payments from $ 600 to $ 2,000 and cut other spending. He resigned his demands on Sunday, as a possible government shutdown was looming, sparked by a fight with lawmakers.
But Democratic lawmakers have always wanted checks for $ 2,000 and used uncommon common ground with Trump to make the proposal.
One hundred and thirty Republicans, two independents and two Democrats opposed the increase Monday.
Trump sanctioned the $ 2.3 trillion package over the weekend, but kept up the demand for $ 2,000 checks. The package includes $ 1.4 trillion in spending to fund government agencies and $ 892 billion in aid payments to people and businesses affected by Covid.
Increased pressure for Brazil
Laureno, from Prospectiva, values that the US package increases the pressure for the Brazilian government to create some kind of protection at this time of the increase in the pandemic in Brazil. Remember that the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, only accepted the idea of paying emergency aid after the United States and Europe began to give money to the vulnerable population.
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– The government clearly stopped thinking about a long-term strategic solution. If the situation worsens, he may be forced to adopt an emergency solution, without planning and with less effectiveness -he said, who criticizes proposals such as the anticipation of the payment of the thirteenth and the allowance for retirees and pensioners, and new withdrawals from the FGTS, which only they benefit those in formal employment.
According to Laureno, the Planalto points out that it will only deal with a more structural issue after the elections for the presidency of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, believing that it can emerge victorious and with greater room for maneuver.
Camargo, however, affirms that the government is right to show that it seeks a fiscal balance, after a year of increased public spending. For him, without this signal, the country does not attract investment, loses credibility and may have to raise interest rates, generating inflationary risk:
– At this time it is very important for Brazil to show that it can pay its debt. The objective is to respect the spending ceiling.
* With agencies
