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OR Saint Paul saw his chances of being Brazilian champion jump this season after defeating the Fluminense 2 to 1, in Maracanã, and at the same time, the Flamengo only draw without goals with him Strength, in Castelão, both matches of matchday 27, on Saturday (26).
Now the São Paulo team appears more easily in the leadership of the brazilian championship, with 56 points. There are 7 more than Flamengo (49), which has one game less (against Grêmio and which will be played in January) and a confrontation with the leader to do, in the last round, but now no longer depends only on to lift the Cup.
The difference in points for Flamengo and the sequence of matches make São Paulo appear now with 52% chances of a title (in the previous round they were 44%), according to projections from ‘FiveThirtyEight’, a website specialized in calculations and statistics and partner of ESPN.
It is worth remembering that the site also evaluates the field command and the stage of each opponent ahead.
2:27
The #LinhaDeCasa commentator cited the ‘social media thermometer’ and analyzed the red-black performance in the goalless draw against Fortaleza
Flamengo, on the other hand, who fell to third place for having fewer victories than Atlético-MG (15 to 14), appears with a 32% chance of being champion. In the last lap it was 42% and in better condition.
Now in second place, with the same 49 points as Flamengo, the Athletic-MG, who defeated on Saturday Coritiba The 2-0 in Mineirão, however, did not see his situation change. Continue with a 6% chance of title.
Guild (42 points), Palms (41) e International (44) have, respectively, 3%, 2% and 1% chance of title.
It should be remembered that these three teams are still playing this Sunday (27) for the 27th round of Nacional: Bahía x Internacional, in Salvador; Palmeiras x Red Bull Bragantino, in São Paulo; and Grêmio x Atlético-GO, in Porto Alegre.
Below them, ‘FiveThirtyEight’ doesn’t see any other cup contenders.
And the degradation?
The fight for relegation involves many more clubs than the fight for the title, but the situation for some already seems irreversible.
Coritiba, now a flashlight, appears with a 94% chance of falling. OR Let’s go, even having won the Sport from 1 to 0, it has 88%.
Penultimate and committed against Corinthians this Sunday (27), Botafogo appears with 73%. Sport, which due to Goiás’ setback, entered the relegation zone, has 48%.
Outside the grip zone Basque, Bay and Fortaleza appear with 33%, 22% and 17%, in that order.
Higher up, closing the group of those threatened, are Athletic-PR (9%), Red Bull Bragantino (9%), Athletic-GO (5%), Ceara and Corinthians (each with a 1% chance of falling).
