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Published this Friday 25, the preliminary map of the 34th round of the Controlled Distance model continues to reflect the high rate of contagion and occupation of hospitals by coronavirus in Rio Grande do Sul. Although five more regions have been added to that of Guaíba and with the orange flag (medium epidemiological risk), the rest of the state remains on alert, representing 76.5% of the state’s population, in 414 municipalities.
In this round, with the exception of Taquara, Novo Hamburgo, Cruz Alta, Pelotas, Bagé and Guaíba, the other 15 Covid regions presented a high risk of contagion, classified, therefore, with a red flag.
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For the total of Rio Grande do Sul, there was a reduction in the number of new confirmed hospitalizations with Covid-19 (-14%) and in the number of patients hospitalized in Covid clinical beds (-6%). The ICUs, on the other hand, showed an increase in the number of patients hospitalized for coronavirus (+ 5%).
Counting the patients hospitalized for Covid and also other causes, this week there was stability again in the number of occupied ICU beds. With the opening of beds and the increase in those confirmed with Covid-19 in the ICU, the ratio of free beds for each occupied by Covid-19 was practically equivalent.
The regions with the highest number of new hospital records in the last seven days, by place of residence of the patient, are Porto Alegre (256), Caxias do Sul (157), Passo Fundo (103), Canoas (100) and Pelotas (61 ).
Alert for the Valles Macroregion
The three regions of the Vales macro-region are already classified with a red flag in the preliminary map of this 34th round and, due to the progress in the occupation of ICU beds by patients confirmed by Covid-19, they deserve attention, warns the state government.
The valleys registered an increase in terms of occupancy of ICU beds by patients with Covid-19 (from 44 to 48), the highest value in the entire historical series for the macro-region. Even so, there was a 50% reduction in the offer of free beds for intensive care in the region, which now has 15 units, in the previous week there were 30.
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Finally, the indicator related to service capacity worsened in the comparison between the weeks. The percentage of patients confirmed for Covid-19 in ICU beds, in relation to free beds, increased considerably. Although last week there were 0.68 free ICU beds for each ICU bed occupied by the Covid-19 patient, this week the indicator went to 0.31, the lowest number among all the macro-regions in this round and practically , the same as the southern macroregion of round 32, when the Pelotas and Bagé regions obtained a black flag.
Co-management
Among the 19 Covid regions that have joined the regional co-management system, the 14 that are under the red flag can adopt their own compatible protocols up to the level of restriction of the orange flag. The five regions listed in orange that are in co-management may use yellow flag protocols, if provided for by the co-management plan.
The only regions that are required to follow the rules defined by the state are Uruguaiana and Guaíba, which did not send regional plans. In the event that the protocols have not yet been sent or the regional plan is not in force, the government opens the possibility of immediately receiving more flexible standards up to the bottom line, without waiting 48 hours for the presentation and validity of a new plan regional.
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As the preliminary map was published at 7:00 p.m. on Friday 25, the municipalities and regional associations that wish to send a request for reconsideration of the preliminary map have one more hour – to close the 36-hour period – to send their request to the government . The online form will be available until 7 a.m. on Sunday 27.
Applications will be reviewed by the Crisis Office and the final map will be released at 4:30 pm on Monday 28th. The new flags will be in effect from December 29 to January 4.
Southern macro-region: from red to orange
Two weeks ago, Bagé and Pelotas (southern macro-region) sported a black flag on the final map of round 32, the regions returned to red in round 33 and now appear with an orange flag on this week’s preliminary map. The change is due to the reduction of some indicators that make up the Controlled Distance model.
Although Bagé increased the number of hospitalizations confirmed by Covid-19, from 18 to 23 (the same number as in round 32), Pelotas had a reduction of 25 hospitalizations: they were 61 compared to 86. Regarding the number of deaths, the scenario invest. Bagé had a 50% reduction (from 6 to 3), however, Pelotas had a significant increase of 36%: there were 45 deaths this week and 33 last week.
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Consequently, Macrorregião Sul had an increase in the number of free ICU beds, from 22 to 34, while in round 32 (in which the region was black flagged) there were only 15. The numbers of the respiratory syndrome indicator Severe acute (SARS) and inpatients in the Covid ICU beds on the last day remained almost stable, 62 and 48, respectively. However, the number of patients hospitalized in Covid clinical beds on the last day increased from 80 to 88, but is still below the 102 in round 32.
Highlights of the 34th round
– New weekly records of confirmed COVID hospitalizations decreased 14% between the last two weeks (1,372 to 1,175);
– The ICU interned for SARS increased 1% in the State between the last two Thursdays (1,140 to 1,148);
– Patients hospitalized in clinical beds with COVID in RS decreased by 6% between the last two Thursdays (1,316 to 1,243);
– Patients hospitalized in ICU beds with COVID in RS increased by 5% between the last two Thursdays (935 to 979);
– The number of free ICU beds for adults to treat COVID in RS increased by 6% between the last two Thursdays (from 460 to 489);
– The number of active cases decreased by 4% between the last weeks considered (from 41,409 to 39,719);
– The number of death registrations from COVID has decreased by 7% between the last two Thursdays (from 490 to 456).
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