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Although the coronavirus pandemic does not have an end date, emergency aid does. Officially, the government says that the main and most expensive program to combat the 2020 crisis ends in December, with some residual withdrawals until January 27. But that does not mean that things cannot change.
The Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, said that an extension of aid would be necessary in the case of a second wave of covid-19. That was November 11. Since then, the death rate has risen again. Crowds at the end of the year parties can worsen the contamination scenario and vaccination does not yet have a set date to begin.
Despite the worsening of the pandemic, President Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) affirmed that there will be no extension of aid, but that he intends to increase the average value of Bolsa Família.
Behind the scenes, the economic team discusses cheaper alternatives than emergency aid to serve the most vulnerable population in early 2021. Possible solutions include: advancing the salary bonus, authorizing a new emergency withdrawal from the FGTS and anticipating benefits retirement and social security.
Aid has no budget for next year
The emergency aid is financed with a special budget, called the War Budget. It is an exception approved by Congress that allows the government to borrow to meet urgent expenses caused by the coronavirus crisis.
This rule only applies for the duration of the state of calamity, which runs until December 31. The calamity decree could be renewed, but the government and congressional leaders say it will not happen. They fear that unlimited spending will further undermine public accounts and that this could lead to serious economic problems.
Therefore, all emergency aid payments must be made before 2020.
Aid ends in December, but is withdrawn in January
For the emergency aid funds to run by the end of this year, the government will make all payments in digital savings until December 29.
The last group to receive will be those born in December who are not on Bolsa Família.
However, the schedule is divided into two stages. In the first, the money is deposited in digital savings and is only available for payments and transactions through the Caixa Tem application. In the second stage, the aid is released for withdrawals and transfers.
This second phase will last until January 27, when those born in December will be allowed to withdraw and transfer what is left in savings.
Emergency aid programs for those who are not on Bolsa Família are called payment cycles. There are six cycles in total, which divide the beneficiaries by month of birth.
September birthdays, for example, received the deposit of cycle 5 on December 6, the deposit of cycle 6 on December 21, but only from January 20 will they be able to withdraw or transfer what is left of those last payments in savings digital. .
See below for the deposit schedule for cycles 5 and 6, which are the latest forecast.
For the Bolsa Família public with the right to attend, the last installment will be paid until December 23, with immediate withdrawal.
What is needed to extend aid
For emergency aid to have more quotas in 2021, the government and Congress need to find money to pay for it.
Emergency aid and residual aid (extra fees of R $ 300) will cost approximately R $ 322 billion to the public coffers at the end of the year. Together, they are 11 times more expensive than the Bolsa Familia this year, which had a forecast of R $ 29.5 billion.
Next year’s budget does not have room for new aid within the spending ceiling (a rule of the Constitution created in 2016 that limits the real growth of federal spending). Therefore, the only viable solution would be to approve a new exception for extraordinary claims.
To do so, the Government and Congress must agree and assume the consequences of the inevitable public debt that the decision would entail.
