Red flag prevails on preliminary map of controlled distance week 33

The preliminary map of round 33 of the Controlled Distance model continues to reflect the high rate of contagion of coronavirus in the State. Even with the change in the indicators of the South macro-region, going from black to red in Bagé and Pelotas, the State remains on maximum alert.

In this round, the only Covid region that does not present a high risk of contagion is Guaíba, classified as an orange flag (medium epidemiological risk). The other 20 regions are under the red flag.

See the previous classification of the 33rd round in https://distanciamentocontrolado.rs.gov.br

Although there was a 4% reduction (from 1,375 to 1,316) in the number of hospitalized patients in clinical beds confirmed with Covid-19, patients in ICU beds increased by 2% (from 915 to 935). In addition, about 60 ICU beds were opened in the state. The increase in deaths reached 20% (from 409 to 490) between the last two Thursdays, which represents the highest level since the start of the model.

The regional co-management system, suspended in the first half of December, came back into effect on Tuesday (12/15). To date, 18 of the 21 Covid regions have joined the co-management and adopted their own protocols, drawn up by regional associations.

For membership, it is necessary to send regional plans with their own protocols adapted to the Secretariat of Articulation and Support to Municipalities (Saam), limited to the previous flag. In the event that the protocols have not yet been sent or the regional plan is not in force, the government opens the possibility of immediately receiving more flexible standards to the bottom of the flag, without waiting 48 hours for the presentation and validity of a new plan regional.

See the specific protocols for each region at https://planejamento.rs.gov.br/cogestao-regional

Municipalities and regional associations that wish to use the preliminary map published on Friday (18) can send requests to the government until 6:00 am on Sunday (20/12) using the form https://forms.gle/2ncdj7GzuY5uQQbB6. After being analyzed by the Crisis Office on Monday (12/21), the state government will launch the final flags, valid from December 22 to 30.

Change in Assets / Recovered indicator

In this round, the “Assets / Recovered” indicator required adjustment, since the average time between the confirmation of the positive case and the inclusion in the system is more than eight days. Many cases were being entered with a long delay that are not counted as assets, entering the system as recovered.

To correct this distortion, the indicator is now calculated with a delay of one week. Therefore, cases that are late in the last week are added as active with the previous week as the reference date.

CHANGE OF FLAGS

Southern macro-region: from black to red

After being black flagged on the final map for round 32, the Bagé and Pelotas regions (southern macro-region) turn red again on the preliminary map for this round. The change is due to the fall of some indicators that make up the Controlled Distance model.

The South macro-region had an increase in the number of free ICU beds, from 15 to 22, as well as reduced the number of hospitalized in clinical beds due to coronavirus, from 102 to 80, and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), from 74 a 63 However, the number of hospitalized in ICU Covid-19 beds on Thursday (12/17) remained at 50, the same indicator as last week.

In the indicators by municipality, Bagé registered a drop in the number of deaths (from 10 to six) and hospitalizations (from 23 to 18). The municipality of Pelotas also registered reductions: from 41 to 33 deaths and, less significantly, from 87 to 86 hospitalizations.

Guaíba region: from red to orange

Even registering four more deaths than in the previous week (16), Guaíba was the only region classified with the orange flag. The improvement is due to the stability of both the indicators that cover specific regional data and the metropolitan macro-region.

With the improvement in the Propagation Speed ​​indicators in the Macroregion and in the Change in Service Capacity (macroregional and state), there was a reduction in the final average within the parameters that determine the average classification. Guaíba also showed a 4% drop in the number of confirmed Covid-19 hospitalizations as a proportion of the population (from 6.44 to 6.19).

Cruz Alta region: from orange to red

With the record of maximum risk (black flag) in two of the four regional indicators, the Cruz Alta region returns to the red flag. The worsening was recorded in the number of hospitalizations for Covid-19 in the last seven days, from five to nine, and in the projection of deaths. With six more registrations, the region had a 50% increase in relation to the previous week (four deaths). In the case of the Recovered Assets indicator, the region recorded 226 assets and 746 recovered.

0-0 rule

According to the preliminary map of the 33rd round, 478 municipalities (out of a total of 497) are classified as red flags, totaling 10.9 million inhabitants, which corresponds to 96.4% of the state’s population (total of 11, 3 million inhabitants).

Of these, 167 municipalities (733.7 thousand inhabitants, 6.5% of the population of Rio Grande do Sul) can adopt orange flag protocols, because they meet the criteria of Rule 0-0, that is, they do not have registration death or hospitalization of residents in recent years. 14 days, provided the city creates a local regulation.

Of the 19 municipalities with the orange flag (403.7 thousand inhabitants, 3.6% of the RS), ten did not register deaths or hospitalizations (78.8 thousand inhabitants, 0.7%).

• Click here and access the list of municipalities that comply with Rule 0-0

SUMMARY OF THE 33rd ROUND

Regions that got worse (1)