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This Thursday 17, Brazil registered a total of 1,054 deaths from COVID-19 In just 24 hours, the country has not exceeded the level of 1,000 daily registrations since September. The advance of infected, hospitalizations and deaths due to new coronavirus it occurs at a time when the scenes of busy streets, shops and beaches multiply and only 1/3 of the population maintains social isolation. Experts still expect an “explosion” of cases after the Christmas season.
Regarding the death toll this Thursday, the São Paulo data embargo occurred on Wednesday 16, in which the State did not calculate data on Ministry of Health – and recorded 399 deaths at a time this Thursday. But, in the previous two days, the total number of registrations in one day had already exceeded 900, according to the consortium of Status, G1, Or Balloon, Extra, leaf and UOL, which collects data from health departments.
The increase has been driven by southern regions, such as Parana me St. Catarina, and the southeast, like the River, where managers see hospitals with ICUs near the limit. The growing trend of victims goes against the president’s speech Jair bolsonaro, who came to quote last week that we were in “Small end” of the pandemic.
The isolation indicators are checked daily by the Monitor Estado / Inloco. Since the beginning of the pandemic, the highest average rate of isolation was registered on March 22, when governors and mayors adopted the strictest measures: 62.2% of Brazilians took refuge in their homes. Nine months later, it is 35.8%, half of the 70% designated by specialists as necessary to stop the transmission of the virus.
This Thursday, the 17th, the Observatory Covid-19 BR, which brings together researchers, published a note stating that “there is a clear and strong trend of growth in cases, hospitalizations and deaths from covid-19 in almost the entire country, especially in the South and Southeast ”. Maria Rita Donalísio, an epidemiologist at Unicamp and a member of the group, defends withdrawing quarantine easing measures as soon as possible.
“The increase in the number of beds is very important, but not enough because it does not interfere with the incidence of the disease and the number of cases. It is the case that we are already thinking of closing these places where the diffusion is greater, such as parties, bars, concerts, crowds on the beaches, trips, etc. ”He observes. The researcher points out that states and municipalities also need coordinated action to increase testing. “We can’t expect much from the federal government,” he observes.
Dante Senra, cardiologist and intensivist at USP, shares the same idea. “This whole situation is driven by a denialist discourse about who should lead the nation,” he criticized. Senra also points out that, with the arrival of summer, Native me eve, Brazil will repeat in mid-January the same phenomenon that occurred in the U.S after the Thanksgiving celebrations on November 26.
Even so, on Wednesday 16, the country broke the daily record with more than 240 thousand cases and 3.5 thousand deaths in just 24 hours. “People, in my opinion, have grown tired of the pandemic and have an idea of ’if you don’t have it now, you won’t have it anymore.’ The problem is that in the United States they are already beginning to vaccinate in the coming weeks and we still have no prospects for that. ”
The Infogripe group, from Fiocruz, monitors the cases of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in the country, of all the SARS cases registered this year, 97.8% were covid. There is an upward trend in SARS in at least one health macro-region of 21 states, says Marcelo Gomes, coordinator of Infogripe.
Rio has a vacancy at UCI
Experts also warn of the risk of underreporting. “When we analyze only hospitalized cases, it depends on how much you have already taken care of the offer. It does not necessarily mean that the transmission is down, but that there are no more beds to occupy. Hospitalization depends on the total number of vacancies, ”says Ana Freitas, a health worker at Hospital Emílio Ribas.
In Rio de Janeiro, for example, patients have reported problems finding a place in the ICU in recent weeks. In Rio, the occupation of UCI beds of the SUS for covid – municipal, state and federal beds – was 92% this Thursday and 195 people were waiting for a place in the city and in Baixada Fluminense.
Ana Freitas, from Emílio Ribas, highlights the urgency of opening new beds, but says that this will not solve the problem of high cases and deaths. “This measure of expansion of the beds has to be rapid, because when severe cases increase at the tip it is because the transmission is very intense. But that can only be reversed if social distance increases, there is no other balance ”.
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