Covid deaths fell less in November than in October, health departments indicate | Coronavirus

It is the second consecutive month that the country ends with less than 20 thousand deaths from the disease, and the fourth consecutive year in which there is a drop in the number of deaths (see graph).

However, the percentage decrease in deaths was less from October to November than from September to October.

It is the first time that the percentage drop from one month to the next is less than that observed in the previous two months:

• From July to August, deaths fell by 9% (July was the month of the pandemic with the highest number of deaths in the country.
• From August to September, the drop was 22%.
• From September to October, 28%.
• From October to November, 17%.

“The fall is no longer as striking, as it was at the beginning of last month. And unfortunately, with the most recent figures, at the end of the month we don’t even know if we will have a fall ”, says the epidemiologist and dean of the University of Pelotas Pedro Hallal. .

The November figure was calculated by subtracting the total deaths on October 31 (159,902) from the total deaths as of Monday (November 30), which was 173,165 Until 8 pm. The figures for the previous months were determined with the same methodology. (See more at the end of the story).

The coronavirus transmission rate last month reached the highest rate since May: 1.30, before falling again this week to 1.02. This means that every 100 infected people in the country transmit the virus to another 102. In practice, it symbolizes one progress in the spread of the disease.

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Depending on the British tracking error, the transmission rate in the country can be higher (Rt up to 1.11) or lower (Rt up to 0.94). In these scenarios, every 100 people with the virus would infect 111 or 94 more, respectively.

On Monday (30), the World Health Organization (WHO) said that Brazil “must take very, very seriously” the increase in the number of Covid-19 cases.

Also in November, Fiocruz indicated, for the first time since July, an increase in cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) throughout the national territory. Before, this scenario was only indicated for some capitals.

SARS can be caused by various respiratory viruses, but this year, about 98% of cases of the syndrome have been caused by Sars-CoV-2, according to Fiocruz. Therefore, the data helps to understand the scenario despite the delay in the confirmation of diagnostic tests, for example.

Twelve of the 27 Brazilian capitals had a moderate or strong signal that there was an increase in cases in the 6 weeks prior to the bulletin: Belo Horizonte, Campo Grande, Maceió and Salvador had a strong signal; Curitiba, Natal, Palmas, the Pilot Plan of Brasília and its surroundings, Rio de Janeiro, São Luís, São Paulo and Vitória had a moderate growth sign.

The media consortium launched the joint survey in early June. For this reason, the monthly data from February to May are for exclusive surveys of the G1. The source of both monitoring, however, is the same: state health departments.

Another observation about the data is that, on July 28, the Ministry of Health changed the methodology to identify Covid cases and began to allow imaging (tomography) diagnoses to be reported. It also expanded the definitions of clinical cases (those identified only in the medical consultation) and included more possibilities for Covid tests.

Since the change, more than 1,000 cases of Covid-19 have been reported by state health departments to the federal government under the new criteria.

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