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Information circulates on social networks that Ibope projected the turn or victory of the PT, PSOL and PCdoB candidates in the second round of this year’s elections, in Vitória (ES), Cariacica (ES), São Paulo (SP ), Recife. (PE) and Porto Alegre (RS). However, political opponents of these three parties in the aforementioned municipalities won the disputes. Throughnews verification projectFacebook users requested that this material be analyzed. See verification work below. To forget:
“Ibope screened the turn of João Coser, from PT, in Vitória. Pazolini was elected.
Ibope screened the turn of Célia Tavares, from PT, in Cariacica. Euclério Sampaio was elected.
Ibope screened the shift of Paulo Boulos, from Psol, in São Paulo. Bruno Covas was re-elected.
Ibope projected the victory of Marília Arraes, of the PT, in Recife. João Campos was elected.
Ibope projected the victory of Mando D’ávila, of the PCdoB, in Porto Alegre. Sebastião Melo was chosen “
Message posted on Facebook that, as of 17:44 on November 30, 2020, was shared 58 times
FALSE
The information analyzed by To forget it’s false. Ibope did not “project” a change of course or a victory for the candidates mentioned in victory, Cariacica, Saint Paul, Recife me Porto Alegre. In note, the institute clarified that its research does not seek to anticipate who will win an electoral dispute, but to show the scenario at the time the polls were conducted. “The poll is a snapshot of the moment and has neither the power nor the intention to predict the outcome of an election. Therefore, your results cannot be used to predict the outcome of the polls. Ibope does not project, it investigates ”, he says.
In addition, in all the cities mentioned, the surveys published in the 2nd round showed scenarios of a tie or technical tie, which considers the margin of error, in all the cities mentioned, with the exception of São Paulo. In the São Paulo capital, Bruno Covas (PSDB) held the lead over Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) in the latest Ibope poll, published on November 28.
Ibope also pointed out that, to make a direct comparison with the results of the polls, exit polls would be necessary, which were not carried out in these cities. The company also cited the abstention rates on Sunday (30) and argued that “it is not possible to understand the impact of the profile of the voter who did not go to the polls, due to the pandemic, on the candidate indexes.”
Ibope also reaffirmed that all the research carried out throughout its 78 years of existence is based “on technical criteria of statistical science.” “In addition to statistical rigor, the company has its standards certified and strictly complies with the codes of self-regulation and ethics of Esomar (world association of research professionals),” says the statement.
See more details about the polls and the results at the polls in the five cities:
victory
In victoryWhen considering only valid votes, the November 28 poll showed that delegate Pazolini (Republicans) and João Coser (PT) each had 50%. The margin of error was 4 percentage points more or less. Therefore, the candidates were tied and it was not possible to specify who would be chosen. According to the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE), the delegate Pazolini won with 58.50% of the total valid votes.
Cariacica
In the city of CariacicaWhen considering only valid votes, the poll on the 26th showed a technical tie. The candidate Euclério Sampaio (DEM) had 51% and Célia Tavares (PT), 49%. The margin of error was 5 percentage points or so. Euclério Sampaio was chosen with 58.69% of the total valid votes.
Saint Paul
In Saint PaulWhen considering only valid votes, the poll on the 28th showed that Bruno Covas (PSDB) held the lead, with 57%, while Guilherme Boulos (PSOL) had 43%. The margin of error was 3 percentage points more or less. Ibope maintains that the results of Sunday’s elections are within the margin of error. Wells was elected with 59.38% of the total valid votes.
Recife
In RecifeWhen considering only valid votes, the poll on the 28th showed a tie. Each of the candidates, João Campos (PSB) and Marília Arraes (PT), had 50%. The margin of error was 3 percentage points more or less. João Campos was chosen with 56.27% of the total valid votes.
Porto Alegre
I’m already on it Porto Alegre, when considering only the valid votes from the poll of the 28th, Manuela D’Ávila (PCdoB) had 51% and Sebastião Melo (MDB), 49%. Then there was a technical tie. The margin of error was 3 percentage points more or less. Melo was chosen with 54.63% of the total valid votes.
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Edited by: Maurício Moraes and Chico Marés
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