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- Leandro Machado and André Shalders
- BBC News Brazil in São Paulo and Brasilia
Credit, Reuters
Doria’s influence should not be seen as a huge victory for one of Bolsonaro’s biggest rivals, analysts say.
This Sunday (11/29), the governor of São Paulo, João Doria (PSDB), became the successor to the command of the state capital: Bruno Covas, also from PSDB, was elected with almost 60% of the valid votes.
The result could have a major impact on national politics, influencing the 2022 elections, when President Jair Bolsonaro (without a party) will try to remain in office.
This influence should not be seen as a great victory for João Doria, who was the guarantor of Covas and is a possible candidate in the next presidential contest. The diagnosis comes from analysts and political scientists heard by BBC News Brazil on Sunday night (11/29).
In recent months, the toucans have strongly opposed the president, although the current governor of São Paulo used the slogan “BolsaDoria” to win the vote of the conservative right two years ago, in 2018.
During the campaign, Bruno Covas avoided joining the governor, due to the high rejection of Doria in the capital of São Paulo. So, for analysts, as much as the gubernatorial candidate did well, Doria failed to regain the great popularity he had two years ago.
Credit, Reuters
“The election of Covas is an important victory for the PSDB because the election of São Paulo has an impact on national politics,” says the researcher.
“The election of Covas is an important victory for the PSDB because the election of São Paulo has an impact on national politics,” says Camila Rocha, a researcher at the Brazilian Center for Analysis and Planning (Cebrap).
“The electoral pattern is extremely similar to that of past elections, in which the PSDB competed with the PT in the second round, which points to the same wear and tear of the PT and a resilience of the PSDB, even amid a negative assessment of the Doria administration, considering that the majority of the electorate declared in the polls that they would not vote for a candidate proposed by the governor, ”he said.
For Rafael Cortez, doctor in political science and partner at Trends Consultancy, Covas’ victory is a “positive legacy for Doria’s potential political project, although it was not motivated by voter support for his performance as governor.”
But he reflects: “The association between Doria and Covas resulted in limitations for the mayor. In the campaign, opponents used the link between the two to criticize Covas,” says Cortez.
For the analyst, Doria is trying to reposition his image before the Brazilian electorate.
“When he was elected to the city of São Paulo in 2016, he used the image of a candidate who was not a politician, an outsider. But, shortly after, the population realized that he was a politician like the others. He associated with Bolsonarism to win the state government, but it also distanced itself from that discourse. Today, it is trying to reshape its image with the handling of the pandemic and a possible vaccine developed in São Paulo, “says Cortez.
Bruno Carazza: Covas victory does not credit Doria for 2022
Political scientist Carlos Melo, a professor at Insper, believes that Bruno Covas’ victory cannot be attributed to Doria.
“The governor was explicitly hidden. For me, this is the most relevant fact considering 2022. Of course, for him, it is much better to win than to lose. But it is only a small favor from him. João Doria was elected governor in the wave Bolsonarismo, but this spirit of 2018 was brutally defeated in these elections, that’s why it was hidden ”, he says.
Credit, Reuters
“The governor was explicitly hidden. For me, this is the most relevant fact considering 2022,” says the political scientist.
Political scientist Bruno Carazza, for his part, agrees that the result of the municipal elections is not very encouraging for the governor of Tucano, he does not accredit it as the preferred name of the center-right for 2022.
“If you look at the results for Brazil as a whole, in the first and second rounds, you cannot say that the PSDB has become the ‘big winner’. When you look at the distribution in the States, the PSDB was very successful in the States of São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul. So, in the country as a whole, what we saw was the continuation of a contraction that has been going on for a long time, “said Carazza, who is a professor at Ibmec and Fundação Dom Cabral.
“Of course, the PSDB will continue to be the party that will most govern Brazilians, at the mayoral level. But this is largely due to the weight that São Paulo has in this account,” he said.
“For João Doria, this shows that the PSDB has great difficulties in expanding its power beyond places where it is already well established, such as São Paulo.”
“What we see, instead, is that the center-right parties that are on the same line as the PSDB did very well: DEM, PSD, PP and others had growth in these elections and with a dispersed vote throughout the country. . PP and PSD did very well in the South and Northeast, and the DEM was consolidated in the so-called ‘soy belt’, in the Midwest and in the North, “the analyst told BBC News Brazil.
“Without a doubt the center-right was the great winner of these elections, but now the articulations begin for 2022. And the first battle of this war is the dispute for the control of the House and the Senate. It is an indication of how the matches. “says Carazza.
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