End of coalitions reduces number of parties in the Chambers in 73% of cities | Choice in numbers

The number of cities with up to three parties increased from 262 to 1,565. There was also growth, but slightly less (17%), in the total of cities that had between 4 and 6 parties.

In general, the Chambers with up to six parties, which until 2016 represented 50% of the municipalities, are now 82% of the total. On the other hand, the number of municipalities with more than six titles in local legislatures decreased. In 2016, these cities represented 50% of the total; now, it is only 18%.

The data point to a reduction in the so-called party fragmentation in the municipalities. This may have positive effects for mayors, who will have to negotiate with fewer legends to govern, in the experts’ analysis.

For Carlos Pereira, political scientist and professor at the School of Public and Business Administration of the Fundação Getúlio Vargas (Ebape), the data show a strong impact of the end of coalitions for the election of proportional positions. According to him, the result of the polls represents a “shock” in the organization of political disputes, which will lead the leaders to rethink their electoral strategies.

“The most important point of these data is the very strong impact both in the reduction of Chambers with many parties and in the increase of Chambers with few parties. It is a considerable increase. An almost five-fold increase in the number of cities with up to three parties is no small feat. This is almost a revolution in the electoral system, and it will undoubtedly lead political leaders to rethink their electoral strategies, ”observes Pereira.

Average parties remain stable in large cities

Crossing the data considering the size of the city population and the mean number of parties represented in the municipalities, another way of analyzing party fragmentation, shows the impact of the ballot box in small municipalities.

In cities with up to 20,000 residents, the average number of parties in the local legislature was 5.9 in 2016. That number dropped to 4.1. The fall in the averages continues up to the range of municipalities with up to 150 thousand inhabitants. Since then, the data is practically stable, with small variations in the means of the two elections.

“The end of coalitions has created a difficulty for parties in small municipalities, where competition tends to be less. A brake was created and many parties did not elect their candidates. In large cities, on the other hand, competition tends to be more diffuse, with a greater diversity of electoral niches and competitive parties. Hence, therefore, these differences when we look at larger cities and large centers, ”says Pereira.

In the capitals, there were also changes in the total number of parties represented in the Chambers, but to a lesser extent. Recife had the largest negative variation. In 2016 there were 21 parties with representation in the City Council, a figure that this year dropped to 16.

In total, 11 capitals fell from one to five parties with representation, as was the case of Teresina, João Pessoa, Rio Branco, among others. Four capitals maintained the number of parties in the Legislative, while another ten showed an increase, between one and four legends.

For Carlos Pereira, the reordering of local forces will have an impact on the federal dispute of 2022, but it should not be generalized.

He explains that, in cities where the party with the greatest electoral strength coincides with the political group of the deputy, the tendency is for him to be reelected. But when there is no match, especially in small municipalities, the impact can be different.

“There are deputies who have very stable electoral bases, in two, three or five contiguous municipalities. In this case, the dominance of a party aligned with that deputy should not lead to a loss of votes. But in situations of misalignment, because now we have more municipalities with fewer parties with representation, these deputies can have problems at the polls, ”said Carlos Pereira.

“On the other hand, we have a third group, which are the deputies elected by opinion vote, especially in the large centers. I think they shouldn’t have too many problems getting re-elected ”, explains the Ebape / FGV professor.

The reduction of party fragmentation, in the opinion of Carlos Pereira, should be better analyzed in the coming years. It draws attention to the impact of the control of the local legislature and the reduction of the possibilities of political renewal.

According to him, there has always been the desire in Brazil to reduce party fragmentation because it makes governance work difficult, but there is also the collateral effect of now having many cities with few parties in the City Council.

In 14 cities, the Chamber will be controlled by a single party. In 12 of these cities, the party that controls the Legislature is the same party as the elected mayor. All municipalities are characterized by being cities with up to 10,000 inhabitants.

“Every election needs to generate representation and government. With the reduction in the number of parties, the mayor will surely gain in capacity to govern, since now we have less fragmentation, especially in small cities, but precisely because there are fewer parties in the Chambers we have a loss of representation and also of Legislative control. about the Executive. So, what we have to verify from now on is what is the balance point between governance and representation and, of course, the control that the Legislature must do, ”Pereira recalls.

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