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A baud rate (Rt) of the new coronavirus (Sars-CoV-2) for this week in Brazil is the largest since May, according to the monitoring of Imperial College London, in the United Kingdom. The estimated update was published on Tuesday (24) and refers to the week that started on Monday (23).
The report shows that the index is at 1.30. This means that every 100 infected people transmits the virus to another 130 people. By the margin of error of the statistics, this rate may be higher (Rt up to 1.45) or lower (Rt from 0.86). In these scenarios, every 100 people with the virus would infect 145 or 86 more, respectively.
The last time the transmission rate in Brazil was this high was in the week of May 24, when it reached 1.31. The maximum possible value on that date, considering the margin of error, was 1.34.
The last time the margin of error considered a possible higher maximum rate in sight this week in the country was in the week of May 17, when the Rt was again at 1.30, but it could go as high as 1.47.
The scientists point out that “the notification of deaths and cases in Brazil is changing; the results must be interpreted with caution.”
- Brazil experiences Covid ‘second wave start’ due to lack of evidence, centralized politics and social isolation, researchers say
Symbolized by Rt, the “contagion rate” is a number that reflects the potential for the spread of a virus: when it is greater than 1, each infected person transmits the disease to more than one person and the disease progresses.
After staying below 1 for five consecutive weeks, between the end of September and the end of October, the rate in Brazil was again above 1 in early November.
Two weeks ago, the figure was 0.68, the lowest since April, but the date coincides with the data blackout that delayed the update of cases and deaths from Covid-19 by the Ministry of Health. As Rt also considers this data, it affects the estimates.
Brazil already faces second wave of coronavirus, say scientists in technical note
On Monday (23), Brazilian researchers published a technical note in which, based on data from the new coronavirus pandemic in Brazil, they affirm that the country is experiencing the “beginning of a second wave.”
They noted at least three factors for the “explosive surge” or “maintaining the large circulation of the virus”:
- lack of “systematic evidence with case follow-up”;
- lack of a “coordinated, clear and effective central policy to deal with the situation”;
- “Loosening isolation measures without empirical evidence, without careful analysis by a panel of experts.”
Brazil had 169,541 confirmed coronavirus deaths as of 8 am this Tuesday (24), according to a survey by the consortium of press vehicles based on data from state health departments. The figure is the second largest in the world, behind only the states. United.
Highest rate for São Paulo
In addition to the estimate from Imperial College London, Brazilian researchers also monitor Rt.
Scientists from the University of São Paulo (USP) and the Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp) calculated, for this week, a Rt of 1.64 for the state of São Paulo. They predict a likely increase in the number of infected in the state.
- INCREASE: ‘Brazil is already in the 2nd wave of Covid-19,’ says USP researcher
Data from the state Department of Health shows that Covid-19 hospitalizations increased again in the last week, with a 17% increase in hospitalizations between November 15 and November 21. The growth came even after an 18% increase in the previous week, from November 8 to 14.
