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Ibope survey published by TV Globo and by the newspaper “O Estado de S. Paulo” this Wednesday (18) indicates the following percentages of voting intentions for the second round of the 2020 Elections for the City of São Paulo:
- Bruno Covas (PSDB): 47%
- Guilherme Boulos (PSOL): 35%
- White / null: 14%
- Don’t know / didn’t answer: 4%
Montage with photos of Bruno Covas (PSDB) and Guilherme Boulos (PSOL), who are running for the second round of the elections in São Paulo – Photo: Ronaldo Silva and AntonioMolina / Estadão Content
For the calculation of valid votes, blank votes, invalid votes and voters who declare themselves undecided are excluded from the sample. The procedure is the same that the Electoral Tribunal uses to disclose the official result of the election. To win in the second round, a candidate needs 50% of the valid votes plus one vote.
- Bruno Covas: 58%
- Guilherme Boulos: 42%
Bruno Covas stands out mainly among the voters who consider his current municipal management positive (excellent / good), reaching 78% of the voting intentions in this profile. In addition, the candidate stands out among Catholics and respondents aged 55 and over, with 54% of mentions in each of these segments.
The mention of Guilherme Boulos is more expressive among those who value the current municipal management as bad or very bad (50%). Furthermore, in relation to the total sample, the candidate stands out, with 45% of citations, among those of other religions (other than Catholic or Evangelical).
The Ibope poll also shows the intention to vote spontaneously, without presenting the names of the candidates to the voters:
- Bruno Covas: 38%
- Guilherme Boulos: 26%
- Others: 2%
- Null white: 17%
- Don’t know or prefer not to comment: 17%
The sum of the percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
- Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less;
- Who was heard: 1,001 voters from the city of São Paulo;
- When the survey was conducted: between November 16 and 18, 2020;
- Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: SP-05645/2020
- The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper “O Estado de S. Paulo”;
- The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.
Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence.
