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The impact of covid-19 vaccines will grow rapidly in mid-2021, and life is expected to return to normal until next winter in the Northern Hemisphere, late next year. The screening is made by one of the creators of one of the most promising vaccine candidates against the new coronavirus.
Ugur Sahin, co-founder of the German company BioNTech, also said that the immunizer created by his company in partnership with Pfizer can also prevent infections, resulting in a “drastic reduction in cases.”
Last week, BioNTech and Pfizer announced that preliminary results of the vaccine could prevent more than 90% of people from becoming infected with COVID-19.
About 43 thousand people are part of the vaccine studies of the two companies, which are still ongoing. The immunizer has not yet received authorization for distribution in any country.
In an interview with the BBC’s Andrew Marr Show, Sahin said that he hoped that a more detailed analysis of the results of this BioNTech / Pfizer vaccine would show both a reduction in the transmission of the virus between people and a block to the development of symptoms by part of the infected.
“I am very confident that human-to-human transmission will be reduced with such an effective vaccine. Perhaps not by 90%, but perhaps by 50%. We must not, however, forget that even this can result in a dramatic reduction in spread of the pandemic, “he added. said.
The UK is expected to receive 10 million doses of the BioNTech / Pfizer vaccine by the end of 2020, with an additional 30 million doses already requested. The immunizer, which has been tested in six countries, is given in two doses, three weeks apart.
After the announcement of the world’s first effective vaccine last week, John Bell, a professor of medicine at the University of Oxford, suggested that life could return to normal in the spring.
“I’m probably the first to say that, but I’ll say it with some confidence,” Bell said.
For Sahin, who is a professor at the University of Mainz, this should take longer.
If all goes well, he said, the vaccine would begin delivery at the end of this year, early next year.
Sahin said the current goal is to deliver more than 300 million doses worldwide by April 2021, which “could allow us to start having an impact.”
He said the biggest shock would come later. “Summer will help us because the infection rate will decrease, and what is absolutely essential is that we have a high vaccination rate before fall / winter 2021.”
Sahin said it is essential that all immunization programs are completed before next fall, which begins in September 2021 in the Northern Hemisphere.
There are also doubts about its possible distribution in Brazil.
In July, the National Sanitary Surveillance Agency (Anvisa) announced the completion of the phase 3 clinical study of the Pfizer / BioNTech vaccine in the country. But so far there are no formal talks between the two companies and the federal government.
Pharmaceutical companies also began negotiating directly with state governments. If these negotiations are successful (and, of course, the vaccine is approved), the first doses would only eventually arrive in Brazil from the first months of 2021. Deliveries in 2020 are already destined for other parts of the world.
Efficacy in the elderly is still uncertain
When asked if the vaccine was as effective in older people as in younger people, he said it could give a more precise answer with information that will emerge in the next three weeks.
Sahin said it is not yet known how long immunity lasts after the second dose of the vaccine is given. However, he said, a booster shot “shouldn’t be too complicated” if immunity is found to have decreased significantly after a year.
According to him, the “main side effects” of the vaccine recorded so far were mild or moderate pain at the injection site for a few days, while some participants also had mild to moderate fever for a few days.
“We did not see any other serious side effects that could result in the pause or interruption of the study.”
The BioNTech / Pfizer vaccine is one of 11 currently in the final testing phase.
And its use will not be released until it passes the safety analysis and receives approval from agencies such as the Regulatory Agency for Medicines and Health Products (MHRA), in the United Kingdom, and the Health Surveillance Agency (Anvisa), in Brazil. .
The British government intends, if this vaccine is approved, to begin distribution from December. But Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged people not to relax measures of social detachment. According to him, the development of the vaccine “has overcome a great obstacle, but several others remain to be eliminated.”
Another concern is the effectiveness of vaccines against possible mutations in the coronavirus. That fear gained momentum after 12 people were identified with a strain of the mink-related virus after an outbreak in Denmark.
For virology professor Wendy Barclay, scientific adviser to the British government, there is a “concern” that the vaccines that are currently being developed “do not work as well because the virus continues to evolve.”
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