Ibope poll in Porto Alegre, valid votes: Manuela, 40%; Melo, 25%; Marchezan, 17% | 2020 elections in Rio Grande do Sul

Julio Flores (PSTU), Luiz Delvair Martins Barros (PCO) and Montserrat Martins (PV) did not score in the survey. The candidate José Fortunati, who resigned on Wednesday (11), does not appear in the poll.

The percentage of valid votes of each candidate corresponds to the proportion of the candidate’s votes over the total votes, excluding white, invalid and undecided votes. A candidate is elected in the 1st round if he obtains 50% plus one of the valid votes in the official count.

Questions whose percentage sums do not add up to 100% are due to rounding or multiple answers.

Regarding valid votes from the previous Ibope survey, on October 29:

• Manuela went from 32% to 40%
• Sebastião Melo went from 16% to 25%
• Nelson Marchezan Júnior remained at 17%
• Juliana Brizola went from 5% to 7%
• Fernanda Melchionna went from 4% to 3%
• Valter stayed at 3%
• João Derly went from 4% to 2%
• Gustavo Paim went from 2% to 1%
• Rodrigo Maroni stayed at 1%

Luiz Delvair and Montserrat Martins had less than 1%. In the previous poll, the two candidates were not named. Julio Flores obtained 1% in the previous survey and did not obtain a score in this survey. The candidate José Fortunati, who resigned, does not appear in the poll.

Total votes
(Includes undecided, blank and null)

• Manuela D’Ávila (PCdoB): 35%
• Sebastião Melo (MDB): 22%
• Nelson Marchezan Júnior (PSDB): 15%
• Juliana Brizola (PDT): 6%
• Fernanda Melchionna (PSOL): 3%
• Valter Nagelstein (PSD): 2%
• João Derly (Republicans): 2%
• Gustavo Paim (PP): 1%
• Rodrigo Maroni (PROS): 1%
• White / Null: 7%
• Don’t know / No answer: 5%

Julio Flores (PSTU), Luiz Delvair Martins Barros (PCO) and Montserrat Martins (PV) did not score in the survey. José Fortunati, who resigned, does not appear in the survey.

In relation to the total votes in the previous Ibope poll, on October 29:

• Manuela went from 27% to 35%
• Sebastião Melo went from 14% to 22%
• Nelson Marchezan Júnior went from 14% to 15%
• Juliana Brizola went from 4% to 6%
• Fernanda Melchionna was left with 3%
• João Derly went from 3% to 2%
• Valter stayed at 2%
• Gustavo Paim went from 2% to 1%
• Rodrigo Maroni stayed at 1%
• Blank / Null went from 8% to 7%
• I don’t know / No answer was 8% to 5%

Luiz Delvair and Montserrat Martins, who weren’t mentioned in the previous survey, now had less than 1%. Julio Flores scored 1% in the October 5 survey and did not score in this survey.

• See previous Ibope survey, October 29
• See the Ibope survey in Porto Alegre on October 5

Ibope also ran second round simulations among the top 3 ranked candidates in the previous poll, on October 29. Check out:

Manuela D’Ávila (PCdoB) vs Sebastião Melo (MDB)

• Manuela: 42%
• Melo: 40%
• White / Null: 11%
• Don’t know / No answer: 7%

Manuela D’Ávila (PCdoB) vs Nelson Marchezan Júnior (PSDB)

• Manuela: 44%
• Marchezan: 33%
• White / Null: 15%
• Don’t know / No answer: 8%

Sebastião Melo (MDB) vs. Nelson Marchezan Júnior (PSDB)

• Melo: 44%
• Marchezan: 30%
• White / Null: 17%
• Don’t know / No answer: 8%

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Manuela D’Ávila (PCdoB): 38%
• Nelson Marchezan Júnior (PSDB): 36%
• Rodrigo Maroni (PROS): 19%
• Valter Nagelstein (PSD): 15%
• Gustavo Paim (PP): 13%
• Julio Flores (PSTU): 13%
• Sebastião Melo (MDB): 13%
• João Derly (Republicans): 12%
• Juliana Brizola (PDT): 10%
• Fernanda Melchionna (PSOL): 9%
• Luiz Delvair (PCO): 8%
• Montserrat Martins (PV): 7%
• They could vote for all: 3%
• They do not know or prefer not to comment: 5%

Respondents can name more than one candidate, so the results add up to more than 100%.

The candidate José Fortunati does not appear in the poll.

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who was heard: 805 voters in the city of Porto Alegre
• When the survey was conducted: November 12-14, 2020.
• The survey was commissioned by RBS TV.
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: registered in the Regional Electoral Tribunal of Rio Grande do Sul with protocol No. RS-02998/2020.
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral surveys: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence.

Watch videos about the 2020 Elections in RS