Rio Datafolha poll, valid votes: Paes, 40%; Crivella, 18%; Martha, 13%; Benedita, 10% | 2020 elections in Rio de Janeiro

The percentage of valid votes of each candidate corresponds to the proportion of the candidate’s votes over the total votes, excluding white, invalid and undecided votes. A candidate is elected in the 1st round if he obtains 50% plus one of the valid votes in the official count.

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, published on November 11:

• Eduardo Paes went from 41% to 40%
• Crivella went from 17% to 18%
• Martha Rocha went from 14% to 13%
• Benedita da Silva stayed at 10%
• Luiz Lima went from 5% to 6%
• Renata souza stayed at 5%
• Paulo messina went from 2% to 3%
• Mello Flag went from 3% to 2%
• Clarissa garotinho stayed at 1%
• Fred light stayed at 1%
• Gloria Heloiza stayed at 1%
• Cyro garcia stayed at 0%
• Suêd Haidar stayed at 0%
• Henrique simonard stayed at 0%

• Eduardo Paes (DEM): 33%
• Crivella (Republicans): 15%
• Martha Rocha (PDT): 11%
• Benedita da Silva (PT): 9%
• Luiz Lima (PSL): 5%
• Renata Souza (PSOL): 4%
• Paulo Messina (MDB): 3%
• Flag of Mello (Rede): 2%
• Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
• Fred Luz (new): 1%
• Gloria Heloiza (PSC): 1%
• Cyro García (PSTU): 0%
• Suêd Haidar (PMB): 0%
• None / blank / null: 13%
• Don’t know / No answer: 3%

Henrique Simonard (PCO) was not mentioned.

According to the survey, Paes gets the biggest advantages among Spiritists / Kardecists (54%, compared to 17% for Martha, 10% for Benedita and 5% for Crivella); among those over 60 (46%, compared to 17% for Crivella, 14% for Martha and 8% for Benedita); among those with primary education (48%, against 20% for Crivella, 12% for Benedita and 7% for Martha); among those with a monthly household income of more than 2 to 5 times the minimum wage (42%, against 17% for Crivella, 12% for Martha and 10% for Benedita).

Second shift simulations

Datafolha also simulated three second-round scenarios. See the numbers:

• Eduardo Paes 57% x 22% Crivella (blank / null: 20%; don’t know: 1%)
• Eduardo Paes 46% x 33% Martha Rocha (blank / null: 19%; don’t know: 2%)
• Eduardo Paes 49% x 26% Benedita da Silva (blank / null: 24%; don’t know: 1%)

The survey also asked whom voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Crivella: 62%
• Eduardo Paes: 32%
• Clarissa garotinho: 28%
• Benedita da Silva: 28%
• Delegate Martha Rocha: sixteen%
• Cyro garcia: 13%
• Luiz Lima: eleven%
• Paulo messina: 8%
• Mello Flag: 8%
• Gloria Heloiza: 8%
• Renata souza: 7%
• Fred light: 7%
• Suêd Haidar: 7%
• Henrique simonard: 6%
• Reject all / would not vote for none: 3%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 1%
• I could vote for everyone: 2%

Datafolha also addressed spontaneous voting intention, when the voter says who he will vote for without the names of the candidates being presented. See the results:

• Eduardo Paes: 26%
• Crivella: 12%
• Martha Rocha: 9%
• Benedita da Silva: 5%
• Luiz lima: 3%
• Renata souza: 2%
• Mello Flag: 1%
• Paulo messina: 1%
• Fred Luz: 0%
• Others: 4%
• White / null / none: 13%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 23%

The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and by the newspaper “Folha de S.Paulo”.

• Margin of error: 2 percentage points more or less
• Who was heard: 1,875 voters in the city of Rio de Janeiro
• When the survey was conducted: November 13-14
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: RJ-08430/2020
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.