Datafolha Survey in Belo Horizonte: Kalil, 63%; João Vitor Xavier, 8%; Gold, 6%; Engler, 4% | 2020 elections in Minas Gerais

Fabiano Cazeca (Pros) was not mentioned.

According to Datafolha, Kalil leads in all sociodemographic segments and his voting intention is homogeneous across segments.

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, released on November 5:

• Kalil (PSD) went from 65% to 63%
• João Vitor Xavier (Citizenship) went from 7% to 8%
• Áurea Carolina (Psol) went from 5% to 6%
• Bruno Engler (PRTB) from 4% to 4%
• 2% Nilmário Miranda (PT) was 2%
• Rodrigo Paiva (Nuevo) went from 1% to 2%
• Luisa Barreto (PSDB) of 1% stood at 1%
• Professor Wendel Mesquita (Solidarity) 1% was 1%
• 1% Lafayette Andrada (Republicans) was 1%
• Marília Domingues (PCO) went from 0% to 1%
• Cabo Xavier (PMB) went from 1% to 0%
• Marcelo Souza e Silva (Patriota) went from 1% to 0%
• 0% Wadson Ribeiro (PCdoB) was 0%
• 0% Wanderson Rocha (PSTU) was 0%
• Fabiano Cazeca (PROS) of 0% was not mentioned
• None / blank / null was 8% to 6%
• Don’t know / Did not answer 4% stayed at 4%

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Nilmário Miranda (PT) – 32%
• João Vitor Xavier (Citizenship) – 26%
• Corporal Xavier (PMB) – 23%
• Lafayette Andrada (Republicans) – 22%
• Bruno Engler (PRTB) – 17%
• Rodrigo Paiva (new) – 17%
• Luisa Barreto (PSDB) – 17%
• Áurea Carolina (Psol) – 16%
• Marília Domingues (PCO) – 15%
• Fabiano Cazeca (Pros) – 14%
• Marcelo Souza e Silva (Patriot) – 14%
• Kalil (PSD) – 14%
• Professor Wendel (Solidarity) – 13%
• Wanderson Rocha (PSTU) – 13%
• Wadson Ribeiro (PCdoB) – 12%
• Would not vote for any of the candidates – 2%
• I would vote for anyone / reject none – 4%
• I don’t know – 14%

Respondents could indicate more than one answer, so the sum of the mentioned factors is more than 100%.

Regarding your vote, would you say that:

• You are fully determined: 73%
• The vote can still change: 26%
• I don’t know: 1%

Datafolha also addressed spontaneous voting intentions, where the voter says who they will vote for without the names of the candidates being presented. See the results:

• Kalil (PSD): 55%
• João Vitor Xavier (Citizenship): 5%
• Áurea Carolina (Psol): 5%
• Bruno Engler (PRTB): 3%
• Nilmário Miranda (PT): 1%
• Rodrigo Paiva (new): 1%
• Others: 5%
• Do not vote / do not vote / justify: 0%
• Blank / null / none: 5%
• I don’t know: 20%

The percentage of valid votes for each candidate corresponds to the proportion of the candidate’s votes over the total votes, excluding white, invalid and undecided votes. A candidate is elected in the 1st round if he obtains 50% plus one of the valid votes in the official count.

• Kalil (PSD): 71%
• João Vitor Xavier (Citizenship): 9%
• Áurea Carolina (PSOL): 7%
• Bruno Engler (PRTB): 4%
• Rodrigo Paiva (new): 2%
• Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%
• Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 2%
• Professor Wendel Mesquita (Solidarity): 1%
• Marília Domingues (PCO): 1%
• Lafayette Andrada (Republicans): 1%
• Cape Xavier (PMB): 0%
• Wanderson Rocha (PSTU): 0%
• Marcelo Souza e Silva (Patriot): 0%
• Wadson Ribeiro (PCdoB): 0%
• Fabiano Cazeca (PROS): not mentioned

The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and the newspaper “Folha de S.Paulo”.

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who was heard: 1,036 voters in the city of Belo Horizonte.
• When the survey was conducted: November 9-10.
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: MG-06358/2020
• Research contractors: TV Globo and Folha de S.Paulo
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence

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