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Joe Biden was declared the winner of the presidential elections this Saturday (7) by the projections of the American media. The Democrat won 58 more delegates than Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
- 2020 US election followed by world; PHOTOS
The victory was announced after high school and media projections indicated the victory of the Democrat in Pennsylvania.
Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan were also important in securing this change (in addition to Nebraska, where Biden also got 1 delegate). See your weight at the polling station:
- Pennsylvania: 20 votes in the electoral college
- Michigan: 16 votes in the electoral college
- Arizona: 11 votes in the electoral college
- Wisconsin: 10 votes in the electoral college
A Pennsylvania It is the third state in the so-called Rust Belt in which President Trump won in 2016 but turned to Biden in 2020, along with Michigan and Wisconsin.
Both Trump and Biden made many visits to Pennsylvania during the campaign. The Republican visited the state 13 times, while Biden made 16 trips there. Both were in the state on the eve of the elections.
Since 2008, all of the presidential candidates who won in Pennsylvania have won the presidency.
In Michigan, Biden managed to mobilize the population of urban centers, says USP professor of international relations Felipe Loureiro. There, Biden obtained 50.56% of the votes and Trump, 47.91%. The Trump campaign even filed a lawsuit to disrupt vote counting in the state on the grounds that the campaign team was denied access to observe the opening of the ballot.
No Arizona, Biden “managed to become a central region, which has a large population of Mexican descent,” says Loureiro. In 2016, Trump had won in that area with a 2.8% advantage. This time, the advantage for Biden was greater. The difference in votes between the two candidates was 0.56 percentage points.
In Wisconsin, obtained 49.57% of the votes, and Trump, 48.94%. However, polls indicated that it would have a much higher margin, with a difference of almost 10 percentage points.
Biden’s performance was worse than research institutes reported. Several institutes changed the methodology from 2016 to the present and began to give greater weight to the electorate of whites without higher education in their projections, says Loureiro, from USP.
Even with Biden’s victory, the results show that the opinion polls were wrong. The investigation is an image of a moment, but a certain stability of performance was expected in some states that was not verified, ”says Loureiro.
Voter concerned about the economy
The large number of votes received by Trump, even defeated, surprised, says Roberto Abdenur, member of the curatorial council of the Brazilian Center for International Relations (Cebri) and Brazilian ambassador to the United States from 2004 to 2006.
Some polls released after the vote are revealing, according to Abdenur. He cites a survey that showed that for 48% of Americans, the current government’s response to the pandemic is good.
Over the course of the electoral race, Biden made it clear that he was betting heavily on the pandemic as a negative factor for Trump, and that, perhaps, it was a strategic error: He underestimated the part of the American population that does not care. the topic. “.
Abdenur also draws attention to another factor: When asked, Americans said the economy was the most important reason to vote. “People have the memory that, until the pandemic, the economy was doing well, the real income of the poorest improved,” he says.
Expected performance in Florida
Donald Trump’s victory in Florida was predicted by Biden’s campaign, according to Paulo Sotero of the Wilson Center.
“Biden’s strategists never predicted a victory in Florida, for example,” he says.
The elections, according to Sotero, were highly divided, and it is not yet clear who will have control of the Senate. For Sotero, it will be a difficult government.
Loss where Biden campaigned
Despite victories in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, Biden lost in Ohio, where he had an intense campaign and where he intended to be more competitive. Trump was favored in the state for his economic speech, with promises to cut taxes, said Professor Tom Sutton, director of political science at Baldwin Wallace University.
Voters Credited Trump the good results of employment and economy levels before the economic crisis caused by the pandemic, but he did not believe it was responsible for the decline in GDP this year.
According to Sutton, the population of Ohio is concerned about the coronavirus, but believes that there is no indication that Biden does a better job than Trump in fighting the pandemic and believes that it is a problem that needs to be fixed.
“Biden was very conservative in the campaign, in part because of the coronavirus, and Trump took every opportunity he could to energize his supporters,” Sutton says.
