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Credit, Reuters
Bolsonaro has always considered himself a supporter of Donald Trump
The Democratic candidate Joe Biden won this Saturday (07/11) the votes necessary to be the next president of the United States, according to projections of the main US media groups.
The result represents a setback for the president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, who has publicly supported Republican Donald Trump on several occasions, contradicting the Brazilian diplomatic tradition of not interfering in the claims of other countries, a strategy that allows him to be well positioned to establish relations with Brazil. elected government, whatever.
Trump, by the way, was not the first international politician supported by Bolsonaro to fail at the polls.
The series of lost allies has led Brazilians to joke in recent days on social media calling the president “Mick Jagger of politics.” The joke is a reference to the fame of cold feet that stuck to the British rocker after the 2010 World Cup in South Africa – it was when he attended some games, always in the fans of the country that had just defeated.
Bolsonaro’s “bad luck”, however, not only generates memes on the Internet. For the international relations analysts heard by BBC News Brazil, the “wrong bets” in the choice of other countries contribute to increasing the international isolation of Brazil and undermine its leadership capacity in South America.
Today, the Brazilian government has a distant relationship with its largest neighbor, Argentina, after Bolsonaro publicly supported the reelection of Mauricio Macri, defeated by current president Alberto Fernández. Shortly after the result, Bolsonaro lamented the Peronist’s victory and said that “Argentina made the wrong choice.”
Also in South America, the Bolsonaro government supported the failed attempts of right-wing governments in Bolivia (recognizing Jeanine Añez as president after the military overthrow of Evo Morales) and Venezuela (where it supported the self-proclaimed president Juan Guaidó). In the first case, Morales’ party took over the Bolivian government a year later, with the election of Luis Arce as president in the first round. In Venezuela, Guaidó was unable to obtain de facto power, which remains in the hands of authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro.
Bolsonaro’s list of allies who have lost steam at the polls also includes Italian Matteo Salvini, leader of the far-right Liga party, which has been trying to be Italy’s prime minister since 2019, and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. that after successive elections without obtaining a majority in Parliament, he had to reach an agreement sharing the government and committing to leave office in October 2021.
Interference contradicts the UN Charter
According to Professor Juliano Cortinhas, from the Institute of International Relations of the University of Brasilia (UnB), Bolsonaro’s position of supporting candidates abroad contradicts the principle of “self-determination of the peoples” enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations, document that marks the creation of the UN in 1945 and which Brazil joined.
Following this principle means respecting the right of the peoples of each country to self-govern and freely decide their political situation.
“The foreign policy of the Bolsonaro government has been a disaster. Since its inception, it has made incorrect bets that have broken with a long tradition of Brazilian diplomacy of being guided by the principles of international law, such as non-intervention (in other nations) , the self-determination of peoples ”, says the professor.
“And the worst thing is that all the bets made have proven to be incorrect. This charges us a price that is the isolation of our main alliances over the years ”, he adds.
Credit, EPA
In Venezuela, Bolsonaro supported Juan Guaidó, who proclaimed himself president
For Cortinhas, Bolsonaro supports candidates in other countries because he orients his foreign policy according to his ideological and electoral interests, and not thinking about the best strategy for the country.
He criticizes what he sees as “thoughtless statements” by the president on Twitter and outside the Palácio do Alvorada, where he talks to supporters almost every day.
On Wednesday, as the vote count in the United States advanced and already indicated a greater probability of victory for Biden, Bolsonaro said that “hope is the last that dies” when questioned by a supporter about the Trump situation.
“Diplomacy is made up of symbols. Expressions of intention and speeches are very important. And this has been done by the government in a very clumsy way, without reflecting on what is the national interest and what are the best positions for Brazil” , reinforces Cortinhas.
The former Brazilian ambassador to Washington (1999-2004) and London (1994-1999), Rubens Barbosa also sees a political strategy in Bolsonaro’s position.
“He is being consistent with his position, that national-populist right-wing position. That is why he supports candidates who are on the same line as him,” he told BBC News Brazil.
In his opinion, Bolsonaro’s support has no impact on the US elections, but it may have internal repercussions in the case of neighboring countries.
“There is a contradiction between Bolsonaro’s discourse that Brazil does not interfere in the politics of other countries and his action in the politics of Bolivia, in Argentina. This position leaves Brazil increasingly without a voice in South America,” he said. .
Despite Bolsonaro’s insistent support for Trump, the experts interviewed hope that the future Biden government will maintain a pragmatic relationship with Brazil, a country that is not among the priorities of US foreign policy.
Credit, Reuters
In Bolivia, Luis Arce, supported by Evo Morales, won the elections
“It does not make any sense that the president of a country is in this crowd of one government or another in the election of other countries, much less to speak, but I believe that the democratic government will be absolutely pragmatic and will maintain a relationship with Brazil according to what it matters to the United States ”, says the professor of the Institute of International Relations of the USP Maria Antonieta Lins.
The expectation is that the Biden government will continue to pressure Brazil to prohibit the Chinese company Huawei from participating in the implementation of fifth-generation (5G) telecommunications technology in the country. This is a Trump administration agenda that must be sustained because Huawei’s expansion is seen as a threat to American national security.
On the other hand, an important change in US foreign policy that will have an impact on Brazil is the expected alignment of the Biden government with European countries for the preservation of the Amazon. During the electoral campaign, the Democrat even cited the possibility of economic retaliation against Brazil if the Bolsonaro government does not accept external resources to combat the destruction of the forest.
Credit, Reuters
Joe Biden Was Elected US President, According To Media Projections
“I believe that the institutional relationship between Brazil and the United States will not change (with the election of Biden), what will change is the relationship between the presidents. The US government will continue to make decisions based on its interests. This environmental issue is not a problem against Brazil, it is a global priority that has consequences for Brazil, ”emphasizes Ambassador Rubens Barbosa.
UnB’s Juliano Cortinhas also believes in American pragmatism, but predicts that the United States, under Biden, will take “firmer positions” on Brazil. Historically, Democrats have been more sensitive to the environmental and human rights agenda, which clashes with the positions of the Brazilian government today.
“Brazil is an important country, so I can’t imagine Biden turning his back on Brazil. But the positions (of the Bolsonaro government) in relation to the environment, human rights, women’s rights, all this makes Biden is in a position to make a series of demands to negotiate with Brazil ”, says Cortinhas.
“And this will be legitimate because Brazil has been disrespecting a series of principles of international law and has been harming humanity as a whole, with its position in relation to the fires in the Amazon and the Pantanal, for example,” he also said.
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