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Donald Trump and Joe Biden fight one of the closest electoral battles in American history. To win the White House, the winner must obtain at least 270 votes from the Electoral College.
The scrutiny is underway, but in 41 states (out of 50) the local result has already been declared, without one of the candidates no longer being able to be overcome by the other. With that, the current election score is 224 votes for Biden to 213 for Trump.
Therefore, there are nine states where the choice is not defined. And these states will define the winner: Alaska (3 votes in the electoral college), Arizona (11), North Carolina (15), Georgia (16), Maine (4), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10).
The counting of votes in these states can take days, because many of the votes will continue to arrive by mail at the counting centers in the coming days. The US electoral system allows, in some states, that votes cast up to Election Day (11/03) be counted on the following days. For example: in Pennsylvania, election officials expect most mail-in votes to be counted by Friday.
In other years, these postal ballots only served to confirm an already known result. But now they can decide the election in favor of Donald Trump or Joe Biden.
In two of the nine states where a winner has yet to be declared, no surprises are expected. Trump must win in Alaska; Biden must stay with Maine.
That would make the score 228 x 216 in Biden’s favor, with only seven states actually at stake. But 94 votes in the electoral college would still be at stake.
And there are so many different possible combinations of outcomes in these states that few analysts risk guessing who is most likely to win the election.
Check below what each of them, Donald Trump and Joe Biden, are missing to ensure victory in this election.
1) What does Trump need to win?
Currently, Biden leads the race in three of the seven undefined states (Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin), and Trump has the advantage in four others (North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania).
Credit, Reuters
Trump leads in some of the decisive states
According to current figures, Trump would win the election. He would receive 67 votes in the Electoral College, reaching a total of 283 votes (the minimum required to win the White House is 270).
That is, Trump only needs to confirm the result indicated by the investigation so far.
But the president can have an even more expressive victory, if he can reverse the result in states where the count is tight.
This is the case in Wisconsin, where fewer than 10,000 votes separate Biden from Trump in a universe of more than 3 million voters. With 10% of the votes to be counted, Trump can still conquer the state and add another 10 Electoral College votes to his score.
The main focus in Wisconsin is Brown County, where the city of Green Bay is located, where no more than 30% of the vote has yet been counted. This region used to always vote Democrats, but in 2016 it strongly supported Trump and was instrumental in the defeat of Hillary Clinton.
In the 2020 campaign, Trump visited the Greenway area four times. Trump is currently leading the country with a good hand and could receive crucial new votes to turn Wisconsin’s course in the next few hours.
Another state that would seal Trump’s victory would be Arizona, where Biden leads. The state traditionally votes Republican, but appears to be switching sides this year. Still, more than 10% of the vote remains to be counted and Trump may still win there.
2) Or what Biden needs to win?
Despite appearing ahead on the Electoral College scoreboard and also leading the national vote count, Biden needs a turn to win the White House.
Credit, EPA
Joe Biden currently appears ahead of the vote tally
You need to confirm your victory in Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin; and he has yet to turn the tables and overtake Trump in one of the four states where the Republican leads in the counting of votes, to reach the “magic number” of 270 votes in the electoral college.
In his early Wednesday morning speech, Trump said he has already won in those states and that it is unattainable, but the math shows this is not true.
Any of these four states would be enough for Biden to win the election, if he also confirms his victory in the three in which he leads.
This turnaround for Biden seems less likely in Pennsylvania, where Trump leads 55% to Biden’s 43%. Still, 25% of the vote remains to be counted, so even with Trump’s wide lead, the winner still cannot be declared.
The best chances of turning to Biden are in Georgia and North Carolina, where more than 90% of the votes were cast. However, the margin is small: in both states, Trump leads with just over 100,000 votes, in a universe of more than 5 million voters.
One of the turning points may be in Fulton County, home to Atlanta, the most populous city in Georgia. Biden leads with more than 70% of the votes, with only 80% of the count completed. If Atlanta’s mail-in ballots continue to favor Biden in the next few hours, he has a chance to change Georgia’s outcome.
Analysts believe that many of the votes that have yet to be counted (which will arrive in the mail in the next few days) tend to be in favor of Biden. However, so far, Trump has surprised all analysts, with much more expressive results at the polls than anticipated by the polls.
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