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SAO PAULO – The world markets register a volatile movement in this session amid the uncertainty in the electoral dispute in the US, which suggests some of the most feared outcomes: even leader in electoral college, Joe Biden does not confirm strong advantage shown in polls, even as Donald Trump promises to go to court, while the count is still undefined in key states, increasing the risk of lingering uncertainty.
New York Stock Exchange futures are trending indefinitely, with the Nasdaq Future posting higher gains, while the S&P 500 Futures and Dow Jones Futures swing between slight highs and lows. In Brazil, the Senate approves the formal autonomy of the BC with a double mandate, but prioritizing inflation and the creation of voluntary deposits. The national agenda highlights industrial production, which is expected to increase, while the United States still has the ADP.
1. Global grants
Future stock indices in the United States are trading quite volatile on Wednesday (4) due to the vote count in the elections for president, which is still very fierce and without a definitive winner. The world may only know the end result in a few days.
Assets started the night before with slight gains after the optimism of the last regular trading session, but fell again. During the morning, the indices started to rise more strongly, but soon the momentum waned.
The S&P 500 Future (US) was up 0.30%; the Nasdaq Future rose 2.20% and the Dow Jones Future fell slightly 0.36%.
In Europe, stock markets rose, but most of them also reversed the rise. The Eurostoxx index has a slight decrease of 0.03%; Dax from Germany, 0.43% less; the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.10%; France’s CAC 40 fell 0.10%; Italy’s FTSE MIB is down 0.46%.
In the early hours of Tuesday through Wednesday, the Republican candidate, President Donald Trump, said that his lawyers would go to the Supreme Court of the United States, increasing the tension in the markets, which fear the impact of a disputed election.
On the other hand, there are signs that Republicans may retain a majority in the Senate. This reduces fears that a Democratic presidency with a majority in the Senate will lead to more regulation of technology companies, most of which are listed on the Nasdaq, which has helped to lift the index’s performance.
If there is a delay in releasing a final result, the government should take even longer to pass a new stimulus package to deal with the acceleration of novel coronavirus infections in the United States and other major economies around the world.
Although the United States is still waiting for the counting of millions of votes, Trump said in the early morning: “We are preparing for a great celebration. We were winning everything and suddenly everything was canceled ”. Then he said, “We are going to the Supreme Court. We want this vote to stop ”.
Trump called the vote count “a huge fraud in this country.” “We don’t want them to find new votes at four in the morning and add them to the list.” Vice President Mike Pence said they were following the process closely, but did not make accusations in the same vein as Trump.
The dispute over pendulum states, those that do not have a strong tradition of voting for Democratic or Republican candidates, remains intense.
In Asia, markets are also following the decline of Alibaba group shares, following the suspension of the initial public offering of shares of subsidiary Ant Group, due to regulatory concerns. Listed in Hong Kong, shares of Alibaba, which owns more than 30% of Ant Group, fell more than 6%.
Japan’s Nikkei Index closed 1.72% higher; Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed 0.21% lower; South Korea’s Kospi rose 0.6%; and the Shanghai index of China rose 0.19%.
See the performance of the markets at 7 am (Brasilia time):
US Futures
* S&P 500 Futures (US), + 0.30%
* Nasdaq Future (US), + 2.20%
* Dow Jones Futures (US), -0.36%
Europe
* Dax (Germany), -0.31%
* FTSE 100 (UK), + 0.03%
* CAC 40 (France), -0.01%
* FTSE MIB (Italy), -0.35%
Asia
* Nikkei (Japan), +1.72 (closed)
* Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) -0.21% (closed)
* Kospi (South Korea), + 0.6% (closed)
* Shanghai SE (China), + 0.19% (closed)
Raw materials and bitcoin
* WTI oil, + 0.79%, at $ 38.47 a barrel
* Brent oil, + 2.22%, $ 40.59 a barrel
* Bitcoin, $ 13,679.80, + 0.88%
About the ore: ** Iron ore futures traded on the Dalian Stock Exchange closed 0.63% lower, trading at 786.5 yuan, equivalent to $ 117.04 today (in the last 24 hours ).
USD / CNY = 6.72
2. Agenda
At 5 in the morning, Fipe published its monthly IPC Fipe inflation index for October, which was 1.19%. In the same month of the previous year, the index was 0.16%.
Still in Brazil, the highlight is the industrial production data for September, which will be published by IBGE at 9:00 a.m., with an expected increase of 2.4% in the month in the monthly comparison, according to the median projection of the Bloomberg survey.
In addition to the elections in the US, data on the creation of private employment in the country are also released in October, with a projection of 650,000 vacancies created, compared to a previous figure of 749,000. At 11:45 am, the PMI Markit data will be released.
3. BC autonomy and payroll tax
The Senate last night approved by 56 votes in favor and 12 against a proposal that gives the central bank the much desired formal autonomy, while adding a goal of full employment to its main inflation target.
The proposal now goes to the Chamber, where it also has the support of the President of the Chamber, Rodrigo Maia, although this year it cannot go to a full vote. The bill approved by the senators establishes four-year terms for all members of the BC board and establishes strict rules for their removal, in addition to ensuring that their terms do not coincide with those of the country’s president.
According to Agência Câmara, Rodrigo Maia will vote on the Complementary Law Project, immediately after the first round of municipal elections, which allows credit to states backed by the Union, subject to fiscal adjustment. Congress is reviewing the vetoes on Wednesday, including a veto to extend the payroll tax break.
4. Case of cracks
After more than two years of investigation by the Rio Public Ministry, the senator and former state deputy Flávio Bolsonaro (Republicans-RJ) was denounced for embezzlement, money laundering and criminal organization. The complaint occurs within the scope of the Queiroz Case, as the “cracking” process allegedly practiced by the son of President Jair Bolsonaro in the Rio Legislative Assembly became known.
In addition to Flávio, former adviser Fabrício Queiroz, designated as the scheme operator, and 15 other former advisers were also denounced. The deputy also speaks of embezzlement.
5. Corporate radar
Once again, the highlight is the results season. Itaú Unibanco registered a recurring net income of R $ 5,030 billion in the third quarter of 2020, 29.7% lower compared to the same period last year, when it totaled R $ 7,156 billion, due to the large cushion against losses created in the context of the pandemic. . Pointing to a recovery in the economy, the result was 19.6% better than the immediately previous quarter. The result is due to lower expenses with provision for credit risks, especially from Itaú’s wholesale bank.
IRB Brasil Re recorded a net loss of R $ 229.8 million in the third quarter of 2020, an increase of 1,066.50% compared to the negative result of R $ 19.7 million from the previous year, but a fall of 66.46 % compared to the losses of R $ 685.1 million registered in the second quarter of 2020. The reinsurer announced its result on Tuesday (3) evening.
The Minerva slaughterhouse had a net profit of R $ 58.3 million in the third quarter, compared to a loss of R $ 82.7 million in the same stage of 2019.
TIM achieved a normalized net profit of R $ 390 million in the third quarter of 2020, 21% less than in the same period of 2019. However, the profit could have been 60% higher if it had not been for the mismatch in the item accounting. tax authorities, reported the operator. PetroRio, Iochpe-Maxion, ABC Brasil also released their numbers.
The initial public offering of Méliuz shares was R $ 10 per share.
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