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Americans went to the polls Tuesday to choose between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican Donald Trump, who is seeking re-election.
Updated at 11:55 PM on November 3
The first projections for the US elections after the closing of the first ballot box on Tuesday (03/11) confirm the favoritism of Donald Trump in Indiana.
The expectation is that the president takes the 11 delegates from the state electoral college, which in addition to being the birthplace of Vice President Mike Pence, is considered a Republican stronghold.
According to polls, Trump is also expected to emerge victorious in Oklahoma, Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, North Dakota and South Dakota, which has given Republicans a majority in every election since 1968.
His opponent, Democrat Joe Biden, would have an advantage in Vermont, New York, Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, the District of Columbia, Colorado and Connecticut, where Democrats have won every election since 1992..
However, it is too early to draw any conclusions about the outcome of the election, especially given the unprecedented vote of Americans in the mail, a consequence of the coronavirus pandemic. Almost 100 million voted in advance until this Monday (11/02), and only a part of the ballots has already been counted.
Another complicating factor is the design of the electoral process in the United States, which is indirect. In reality, Americans do not elect candidates for the presidency, but members of the Electoral College, the body charged with electing the president.
In total, the country has 538 delegates. The number per State is determined by the number of representatives each unit has in Congress (House of Representatives and Senate). To win the election, a candidate needs 270.
With the exception of two states, Maine and Nebraska, the remainder distribute all delegates to the candidate who gets the most votes at the polls.
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Trump has already said he would go to the Supreme Court to annul votes cast by mail
Key states
North Carolina, which has 15 delegates, is one of the states where polls did not clearly pinpoint a winner, and one of whose results are expected to be released more quickly.
In 2008, Obama won by a small margin in this historic Republican enclave. He lost four years later, just like Hillary in 2016, when Trump was elected.
The State Electoral Council estimates that 80% of the votes were cast in advance, both those cast in person and by mail, and that the result is presented shortly after the polls close.
Florida, with 29 delegates and a tradition of defining presidential elections, remains a key battleground this year.
The polls did not give Biden or Trump a clear advantage in the state, but they do note that Trump needs the region to guarantee re-election. If he loses, his chances of staying in the White House would drop to about 1%, according to FiveThirtyEight estimates.
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The electoral campaign was marked by intense polarization
If the Republican candidate guarantees Florida, the focus will be on the so-called “blue wall,” a term used in reference to the color of the Democratic Party: the three states that were considered bastions of Hillary Clinton’s party in 2016, but which gave Trump the majority. by a narrow margin of votes.
These are Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, part of what became known as the “rust belt”, the heart of the industry that powered the country’s economy in the 20th century and was later affected by a process of deindustrialization accelerated by growing international competition. and globalization. A combination of factors that resulted in an increase in unemployment and migration to other regions.
Trump’s industry revitalization speech earned him an 80,000 difference compared to his opponent in 2016, less than one percentage point in each state. The republican candidate tries to repeat the action with a similar speech; Biden, however, was on the rise in polls, which show a 4-6 percentage point lead over his opponent.
Most analysts say the 16 delegates from Georgia are more important to Trump than to Biden, who would have other alternatives if he lost in the state.
In 2016, Trump won there by five percentage points. Democrats last won the state in 1992, when Bill Clinton was elected.
When will the results be known?
The result of the elections is generally known on the day of the vote.
However, this may not happen this year. There may be a delay both due to the large volume of votes cast in advance and due to an eventual process of judicialization of the elections – Trump has already said that he would go to the country’s Supreme Court to try to invalidate the votes by mail.
There is even the fear of social unrest depending on the result of the polls.
For the first time in its 25-year history, International Crisis Group, an organization whose mission is to “activate alerts to prevent deadly conflicts,” issued a report on the US elections.
According to the group, the country faces an “unknown danger”.
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