Ibope survey in Belo Horizonte: Kalil, 63%; João Vitor Xavier, 8%; Gold, 5%; Engler, 3% | 2020 elections in Minas Gerais

• Kalil (PSD): 63%
• João Vitor Xavier (Citizenship): 8%
• Áurea Carolina (PSOL): 5%
• Bruno Engler (PRTB): 3%
• Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%
• Rodrigo Paiva (new): 1%
• Cape Xavier (PMB): 1%
• Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 1%
• None / blank / null: 9%
• Don’t know / No answer: 6%

In relation to the previous Ibope survey, published in October 15th:

• Kalil (PSD) went from 59% to 63%
• João Vitor Xavier (Citizenship) went from 7% to 8%
• Áurea Carolina (PSOL) went from 3% to 5%
• Bruno Engler (PRTB) went from 2% to 3%
• Nilmário Miranda (PT) went from 1% to 2%
• Rodrigo Paiva (New) from 1% was at 1%
• Cabo Xavier (PMB) of 1% stood at 1%
• Luisa Barreto (PSDB) went from 0% to 1%
• Lafayette Andrada (Republicans) went from 1% to 0%
• Marília Domingues (PCO) went from 1% to 0%
• Professor Wendel Mesquita (Solidaridad) went from 1% to 0%
• Fabiano Cazeca (PROS) 0% was 0%
• 0% Wanderson Rocha (PSTU) was 0%
• Marcelo Souza e Silva (Patriota) 0% was 0%
• Wadson Ribeiro (PCdoB) went from not mentioned to 0%
• None / blank / null was 13% to 9%
• I don’t know / No answer was 9% to 6%

The percentage of valid votes of each candidate corresponds to the proportion of the candidate’s votes over the total votes, excluding white, invalid and undecided votes. A candidate is elected in the 1st round if he obtains 50% plus one of the valid votes in the official count.

• Kalil (PSD): 73%
• João Vitor Xavier (Citizenship): 10%
• Áurea Carolina (PSOL): 6%
• Bruno Engler (PRTB): 4%
• Rodrigo Paiva (new): 2%
• Nilmário Miranda (PT): 2%
• Cape Xavier (PMB): 1%
• Professor Wendel Mesquita (Solidarity): 1%
• Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 1%
• Lafayette Andrada (Republicans): 0%
• Marília Domingues (PCO): 0%
• Fabiano Cazeca (PROS): 0%
• Wanderson Rocha (PSTU): 0%
• Marcelo Souza e Silva (Patriot): 0%
• Wadson Ribeiro (PCdoB): 0%

Highlight by segment according to Ibope

According to Ibope, compared to the previous survey, Kalil grows among voters with a family income of up to 1 minimum wage (from 57% to 71%); and above 1 to 2 minimum wages (from 64% to 74%), these being the best performing segments of the current mayor in this survey.

There was also a growth among evangelical voters, from 57% to 66%; in the age groups 16 to 24 and 25 to 34, from 56% to 64% in both; and among voters with education through high school, from 58% to 66%.

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Nilmário Miranda (PT): 25%
• João Vitor Xavier (Citizenship): 17%
• Cape Xavier (PMB): 16%
• Kalil (PSD): 15%
• Lafayette Andrada (Republicans): 11%
• Rodrigo Paiva (new): 10%
• Áurea Carolina (PSOL): 9%
• Bruno Engler (PRTB): 9%
• Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 9%
• Fabiano Cazeca (PROS): 8%
• Marcelo Souza e Silva (Patriot): 8%
• Marília Domingues (PCO): 8%
• Professor Wendel Mesquita (Solidarity): 8%
• Wanderson Rocha (PSTU): 7%
• Wadson Ribeiro (PCdoB): 7%
• Could vote for all: 6%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 23%

Ibope also addressed the spontaneous intention to vote, when the voter says who they will vote for without the names of the candidates being presented. See the results:

• Kalil (PSD): 55%
• João Vitor Xavier (Citizenship): 5%
• Áurea Carolina (PSOL): 3%
• Bruno Engler (PRTB): 2%
• Luisa Barreto (PSDB): 1%
• Nilmário Miranda (PT): 1%
• Rodrigo Paiva (new): 1%
• Fabiano Cazeca (Pros): 0%
• Lafayette Andrada (Republicans): 0%
• Marília Domingues (PCO): 0%
• Wanderson Rocha (PSTU): 0%
• Professor Wendel Mesquita (Solidarity): 0%
• Others: 0%
• White or null: 10%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 21%

Cabo Xavier (PMB), Marcelo Souza e Silva (Patriota) and Wadson Ribeiro (PCdoB) were not mentioned.

The survey was commissioned by TV Globo.

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who Was Heard: 1001 Belo Horizonte City Voters
• When was the survey conducted: October 26-29
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: registered in the Regional Electoral Tribunal of Minas Gerais with protocol No. MG-08893/2020
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence