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“We don’t know if we will ever have a vaccine. It is important to avoid complacency and excessive optimism. The first generation of vaccines tend to be imperfectAnd we must be prepared not to prevent infection, but to reduce symptoms, and yet it may not work for everyone or for a long time. ”
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The above analysis is signed by Kate Bingham, head of the British working group created for the development and production of vaccines against Covid-19, in a text published in the scientific journal The Lancet.
According to her, the hypothesis that all vaccines end up being ineffective cannot be ruled out, especially for the most vulnerable group affected by the disease: the elderly. For Bingham, the vaccine will not be “a silver bullet” that will allow life to return to normal “overnight.”
The British authority joins a growing number of experts trying to gauge expectations about the emergence of a vaccine against the new coronavirus.
Anthony Fauci, America’s leading infectious disease specialist and chief scientist on the White House coronavirus task force, explained that the vast majority of vaccines against viruses are not intended to prevent contagion, but rather the serious form of.
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“The primary goal of (vaccines against) most viruses is to prevent clinical diseases, to prevent symptomatic diseases, and not necessarily to prevent infections. This is a secondary objective. The main thing to do is, if people get infected, prevent them from getting sick. And if you prevent them from getting sick, you will end up preventing them from getting seriously ill, “Fauci said during a Yahoo online event on Monday (10/26) about ways out of this crisis.
The results of studies with promising vaccine candidates, such as that of the Oxford / AstraZeneca association and that of Moderna, indicate that immunizers are capable of generating a robust immune response against the virus, preventing it from spreading through the body, but they have not could) to avoid infection completely.
In an article published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, 28 researchers discuss how to define how effective Covid-19 vaccines can beGiven the complexity of the disease, it can be accompanied by no symptoms or more than 10 at the same time.
The group of scientists warns that vaccines that prevent symptoms but do not prevent infection can cause a silent increase in asymptomatic infected patients and, at first, boost the advance of the pandemic.
Therefore, it is essential to monitor the presence or absence of the virus in volunteers who received vaccines in the studies.
In general, these immunizers can avoiding infection entirely, preventing moderate and severe symptoms, or “just” avoiding the severe (and therefore fatal) form of the disease. And the authorities require that, to be approved, candidates prove to be effective in at least 50% of immunized people.
If a vaccine eventually succeeds in preventing contagion, the mitigation of the pandemic would be much more accelerated, but Fauci says that it is very likely that mass immunization will not be like that and therefore will not lead to the accelerated end of the spread of the disease nor will of measurements. of social distance.
Anthony Fauci says vaccines are unlikely to end the pandemic any time soon – Photo: EPA via BBC
“(Vaccines) would help a lot, but they will not solve the problem on their own. We will not be able to abandon prudent public health measures for long. We have to make sure they are part of our lives without having to close the country or shut down the economy . “
According to the American infectologist, the positive results on the efficacy and safety of the vaccines should be published in December, but they will not solve the problem.
Vaccine available at Christmas?
According to the head of the British Vaccine Task Force, a Covid-19 vaccine could start to be applied to some of the most vulnerable people around Christmas.
But the limited supply of doses of the immunizer indicates that the government will have to define who will receive it first and when.
The final decision will be made by the government and the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunization (JCVI), which has already indicated that the distribution of the vaccine should be prioritized according to need, with health professionals and the elderly first.
Bingham said in an interview with the BBC BBC that he was optimistic about the discovery of a vaccine that would “protect some people from infection and could reduce the severity of symptoms,” but it is unlikely that the former could protect the entire population. against infection.
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The head of the task force also said that people are likely to need two doses and that revaccination will be necessary in a few years.
“These vaccines will not be silver bullets that will get everyone back to work normally on January 1. It will take time and we will probably need more than one vaccine for different sectors of the population.”
“No one will be safe until we are all safe. The pandemic virus does not respect national borders. There will not be a single successful vaccine, or a single country, that is capable of serving the world. We urgently need international cooperation to add risks and costs, discuss access barriers, and increase manufacturing capacity to produce sufficient doses to protect everyone from Sars-CoV-2 worldwide, “Bingham wrote in The Lancet.
And when will society return to “normality”?
For Bingham, it’s hard to define an exact date to resume normal lifeespecially without knowing what type of vaccine will be available, how many doses will be needed, how effective they will be, and in what age group they will work best.
“Is there a concrete expectation that we can get back to normal? Of course that’s what I hope will happen, but we don’t have the data to be sure that it will happen and also that it will happen overnight.”
One of the main concerns, he said, is that work on a vaccine must start from scratch if the virus mutates significantly in the future.
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Bingham said he was hopeful that by 2022 there would no longer be a need for people to wear masks and he was more confident that we could have parties and family gatherings in 2022.
But the 2021 holidays will continue to depend on the effectiveness of the immunizers and the current pandemic situation. Europe is experiencing a second wave of the disease and several countries have decided to adopt strict containment measures to avoid overcrowded hospitals and more deaths.
Since the official appearance of the first COVID-19 cases in December 2019, the disease has killed 1.16 million people worldwide. There are 44 million registered cases, 20 million of them in the Americas.
