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Ceará may be about to experience a new wave of Covid-19 cases, according to an analysis carried out by the Scientific Committee of the Nordeste Consortium published yesterday (23). The bulletin warns of the epidemic risk of transmission between 1.01 and 1.50, that is, it indicates that a person can transmit the virus to more than one individual, a fact that is considered an important signal for a new phase of high incidence.
The Committee cites the reproduction number of the new coronavirus, symbolized by the R
“The table of reproduction numbers is at 1.50, and it is an average of seven days. This is a very accurate model, it has been very good so far. In previous bulletins, the result of our predictions was verified in the great majority of occasions ”, the doctor emphasizes. This index was down until the end of August. In the first week of September, the breeding number had stabilized at 0.7.
The graphs presented in the bulletin also indicate that while the peak of the disease has already occurred in the State, there is a resumption of the growth of cases. Regarding hospitalizations, the records suggest that there was a peak in June and that there is a downward trend for the next few weeks.
In the analysis of the deaths derived from the disease, the Scientific Committee assesses that there has also been a peak and there is a trend of daily decline for the next few weeks.
The report highlights the evidence of the population in Ceará as a positive point in the measures to combat the new coronavirus pandemic, having increased significantly in the last month. “The models show consistent figures between tested and predicted individuals,” adds the entity’s bulletin.
Ceará concentrated, until yesterday afternoon (23), 269,255 confirmed cases of Covid-19 and 9,245 deaths from the disease. The data is from the IntegraSUS platform, of the Ceará Health Department (Sesa), updated at 4:55 p.m. The number of people recovered reaches 230,203.
Causes
The Committee has the responsibility to accommodate society and carry out electoral campaigns as engines of the increase in cases. “Certainly, one of the factors that contributes the most to these increases is the electoral campaign, which has been generating numerous crowds in all places, where people are unaware of all the sanitary regulations indicated by the World Health Organization and others consider that wearing a mask it is total security against Covid-19 transmission ”.
Scientists point out that “invariably, in agglomerations, the risk of this type of contamination increases considerably, generating the expectation that, in the post-election period, a second wave of the epidemic may occur,” says the publication.
Virologist, epidemiologist and professor at the Faculty of Medicine of the Federal University of Ceará (UFC), Caroline Gurgel, shares a similar analysis of the scenario of formation of a new wave of pandemic disease in Ceará. In addition to the crowds in the electoral period, he points out that the relaxation in personal health measures also contributes to the negative scenario in the state.
“There was an accommodation regarding care with one’s own health and with public health. Now it is very common to see people without masks, crowded into tight spaces, with air conditioning. And this will make the virus circulate more and more ”, he reiterates.
However, blame cannot be attributed solely to individual behaviors. “The recommendation is to continue wearing a mask, and if possible to stay at home, but also that companies improve the quality of life of the worker with regard to public transport. It is not just about worrying about filling the mall or the beach, but the vehicle in which the person is traveling. It makes no sense to maintain social distance in the queue and stay on the bus side by side ”, reflects the virologist. Luciano Pamplona, epidemiologist and professor at the Department of Community Health of the UFC, ruled out that the recent growth in the number of Covid cases in some parts of Ceará is due to the flexibility of economic activities: for him, the increase is directly related to the start of campaigns. .
“The implementation of the commissions and the hand in hand that the period requires, mainly in the elections for councilor and mayoress, undoubtedly contributed to this important increase. We made 95% of the economy more flexible, about five months ago, without any increase, ”he says.
The doctor analyzes, however, that “the increase is still a small percentage and needs to be followed for a longer time to be classified as a trend” of the second wave, but is emphatic in the caution that is necessary to avoid a new peak of cases and deaths. due to the new coronavirus.
“We have to be clear that the virus is still in our environment: what has changed is our behavior. We are not in the crisis experienced in May, but neither can we say that we are free. The challenge is to communicate to people that it is necessary to keep a distance, that it is necessary to wear a mask. If we don’t, we will have to return ”, he warns.
If Ceará is, in fact, submerged in a second wave of the pandemic, the effects should not be as severe as those seen between April and June.
“In Europe, where there is a second wave, there has been an increase in cases, but this has not turned into mortality, mainly because the health service has learned to manage patients early. We’ve seen an increase in hospitalization here, but it certainly won’t affect the number of deaths, ”he predicts.
A great contraction and a setback in the restrictive measures of the State Government, considers the doctor, depend on the behavior of the population. “Unlike that first moment, we don’t need to isolate ourselves socially again, this discourse no longer fits. But physical distance is necessary. If you need to work, go. If you need to go to school, go. But do this trying to keep the minimum distance, wearing a mask. The great learning from this pandemic was the importance of the mask as a physical barrier to contain the risk of transmission. If we succeed, we would return to activities with greater security ”, he concludes.
To avoid a new wave of Covid-19 infection, the Northeast Consortium Ethics Committee recommends that state governments take steps to implement sanitary booths at airports and a 14-day quarantine requirement for tourists who do not present certificates.
The report contacted the State Health Secretariat (Sesa) to confirm whether the Ministry is working with the possibility of the new Covid-19 wave in Ceará, but did not receive a response until the issue was closed.
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