Datafolha Survey in Recife: João Campos, 31%; Marília Arraes, 18%; Patrícia Patrícia, 16%; Mendonça Filho, 15% | 2020 elections in Pernambuco

Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB) and Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU) were mentioned, but they did not reach 1% of the voting intentions. Victor Assis (PCO) was not mentioned.

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, published on October 8:

• João Campos (PSB): went from 26% to 31%
• Marília Arraes (PT): went from 17% to 18%
• Delegate Patricia (Podemos): went from 10% to 16%
• Mendonça Filho (DEM): went from 16% to 15%
• Colonel Feitosa (PSC): went from 1% to 2%
• Carlos (PSL): stayed at 1%
• Charbel (new): less than 1% and now 1%
• Thiago Santos (UP): had less than 1% and now 1%
• Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): remained at less than 1%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): went from 2% to less than 1%
• Victor Assis (PCO): had less than 1% and is now unlisted
• Blank / Null / None – went from 21% to 12%
• I don’t know: it went from 5% to 4%

See Datafolha’s previous survey, released October 8.

According to Datafolha, João Campos registered a more intense advance among voters in Recife (from 25% to 33%), in the age group from 45 to 59 (from 20% to 30%), in the portion with basic education (from 32% to 47%), among the poorest, with a family income of up to two minimum wages (from 28% to 38%), and among evangelicals (from 23% to 33%). Among the richest, there was a drop in the preference for the PSB candidate: among those with incomes of five to ten salaries, their intention to vote went from 16% to 11%.

Despite the stability in relation to the previous survey, with a positive fluctuation within the margin of error, Marília Arraes gained strength in segments that already appeared prominently at the beginning of the month, such as the most educated electorate, in which it went from 23 % to 27%. In the range of family income that earns five to ten salaries, the PT rose from 25% to 32%.

The candidacy of Mendonça Filho won four points among the majors (from 20% to 24%), a segment in which it is only numerically behind Campos, who has 32%.

Patrícia Patrícia advanced in almost all segments of the electorate, with the exception of the elderly, in which it went from 13% to 10%. Older, richer and less educated (in which she also has 10%) are, for now, the weakest points of the Pode candidate, who has voting intentions well distributed among the other sociodemographic groups.

Within the universe of 21% of voters who have the PT as their preferred party in Recife, the election for Marília Arraes went from 36% to 42%, and the rest is distributed mainly between Campos (33%), Delegada Patrícia (10%) and Mendonça (7%).

Degree of knowledge of the interviewee about the candidate:

• Mendonça Filho (DEM): 94% know (very good, 34%; a little, 29%; hearing talk, 31%); 6% don’t know
• João Campos (PSB): 92% know (28% very well; 31% a little; 33% hearing); 8% don’t know
• Marília Arraes (PT): 84% know (21% very well; 27% a little; 36% hearing); 16% don’t know
• Patrícia Patrícia (We can): 68% know (9% very well; 18% a little; 40% hearing); 32% don’t know
• Colonel Feitosa (PSC): 40% know (very good, 5%; a little, 9%; to hear people, 26%); 60% don’t know
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 30% know (4% very well; 9% a little; 17% hearing); 70% don’t know
• Carlos (PSL): 13% know (0% very well; 4% a little; 9% hearing); 87% don’t know
• Cláudia Ribeiro (PSTU): 12% know (1% very well, 1% a little, 10% hearing); 88% don’t know
• Thiago Santos (ABOVE): 11% know (very good, 0%; a little, 2%; hearing talk, 9%); 89% don’t know
• Charbel (Novo): 10% know (1% very well; 3% a little; 7% hearing); 90% don’t know
• Victor Assis (OPC): 8% know (0% very well; 1% a little; 7% hearing); 92% don’t know

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for. The percentages were as follows:

• João Campos: 34%
• Mendonça Filho (DEM): 28%
• Colonel Feitosa (PSC): 27%
• Marília Arraes (PT): 22%
• Charbel (Novo): 21%
• Victor Assis (PCO): 21%
• Carlos (PSL): 20%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 17%
• Thiago Santos (UP): 17%
• Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): 16%
• Patrícia Patrícia (Podemos): 15%
• Wouldn’t vote for any: 4%
• I could vote for everyone: 2%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 5%

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, published on October 8, the rejection of candidates evolved as follows:

• João Campos: went from 30% to 34%
• Mendonça Filho: went from 32% to 28%
• Colonel Feitosa: went from 21% to 27%
• Marília Arraes: went from 15% to 22%
• Charbel: went from 18% to 21%
• Victor Assis: went from 17% to 21%
• Carlos: went from 17% to 20%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo: went from 15% to 17%
• Thiago Santos: stayed at 17%
• Cláudia Ribeiro: went from 12% to 16%
• Patrícia Patrícia: went from 13% to 15%
• Reject all / would not vote for none: went from 9% to 4%
• I would vote for anyone / reject none: it stayed at 2%
• I don’t know: it went from 6% to 5%

Second shift simulations

Datafolha also questioned whether, if the second round of the mayoral election were today, which candidates would voters vote for, presenting three scenarios. The numbers are as follows:

• João Campos 40% x 37% Marília Arraes
• João Campos 43% x 43% Delegate Patricia
• João Campos 48% x 36% Mendonça Filho

• The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and by the newspaper “Folha de S. Paulo”.
• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who Was Heard: 868 Recife Voters
• When the survey was conducted: October 20-21
• TRE-PE identification number: PE-05988/2020
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence

VIDEOS: see the responses of Recife mayoral candidates on issues relevant to the city