Datafolha Survey in Rio de Janeiro: Paes, 28%; Crivella, 13%; Martha, 13%; Benedita, 10% | 2020 elections in Rio de Janeiro

• Eduardo Paes (DEM): 28%
• Crivella (Republicans): 13%
• Martha Rocha (PDT): 13%
• Benedita da Silva (PT): 10%
• Renata Souza (PSOL): 5%
• Luiz Lima (PSL): 4%
• Flag of Mello (Rede): 3%
• Cyro García (PSTU): 1%
• Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
• Fred Luz (new): 1%
• Gloria Heloiza (PSC): 1%
• None / blank / null: 17%
• Don’t know / No answer: 3%

Paulo Messina (MDB), Suêd Haidar (PMB) had less than 1% and Henrique Simonard (PCO) was not mentioned.

In relation to the previous Datafolha survey, published on October 8:

• Eduardo Paes went from 30% to 28%
• Crivella went from 14% to 13%
• Martha Rocha went from 10% to 13%
• Benedita da Silva went from 8% to 10%
• Renata souza went from 3% to 5%
• Luiz Lima went from 1% to 4%
• Mello Flag stayed at 3%
• Cyro garcia went from 2% to 1%
• Clarissa garotinho stayed at 1%
• Fred light stayed at 1%
• Gloria Heloiza went from 0% to 1%
• Paulo messina went from 1% to 0%
• Suêd Haidar stayed at 0%
• Henrique simonard had 0% and was not mentioned in the second survey
• the undecided remained at 3%, and blank or null went from 22% to 17%

According to the survey, Paes has its biggest advantages Between the older (35%, against 13% for Martha, 21% for Crivella and 8% for Benetida); Between the Richer (31%, compared to 10% for Martha, 11% for Crivella and 10% for Benedita); among those who define yourself as white (30%, against 13% for Martha, 11% for Crivella and 8% for Benedita); among those disapprove of the city’s performance in the fight against the pandemic (32%, compared to 13% for Martha, 1% for Crivella and 12% for Benedita); and between catholic (36%, against 16% for Martha, 7% for Crivella and 8% for Benedita).

Also according to Datafolha, the the former mayor of Rio has the worst performances in the following segments: those between 16 to 24 years (24%, compared to 8% for Martha, 17% for Crivella and 15% for Benedita); those who have 25 to 34 years (21%, compared to 12% for Martha, 11% for Crivella and 14% for Benedita); evangelicals (23%, against 10% for Martha, 28% for Crivella and 6% for Benedita); PT supporters (32%, against 10% for Martha, 4% for Crivella and 36% for Benedita); and that approve the performance of the government of President Jair Bolsonaro in the fight against the pandemic (24%, against 10% for Martha Rocha, 28% for Crivella and 3% for Benedita).

Second shift simulations

Datafolha also simulated three second-round scenarios. See the numbers:

• Eduardo Paes 52% x 22% Crivella (blank / null: 25%; don’t know: 2%)
• Martha Rocha 45% x 41% Eduardo Paes (blank / null: 13%; don’t know: 1%)
• Eduardo Paes 48% x 30% Benedita da Silva (blank / null: 21%; don’t know: 1%)

Degree of knowledge of the interviewee about the candidate:

• Eduardo Paes: 98% know (of these, 63% know very well; 22%, a little; 13% only listen) and 2% do not know
• Crivella: 98% know (of these, 61% know very well; 23%, a little; 14% only listen) and 2% do not know
• Benedita: 91% know (of these, 43% know very well; 26% a little; 21% only found out) and 9% do not know
• Clarissa: 85% know (of these, 28% know very well; 24% a little; 32% only listen) and 15% do not know
• Martha Rocha: 84% know (of these, 26% know very well; 30% a little; 29% only listened) and 16% do not know
• Cyro Garcia: 70% know it (of these, 17% know it very well; 21% a little; 32% only listened) and 30% do not know
• Mello Flag: 39% know it (of these, 13% know it very well; 11%, a little; 16% only heard it) and 61% do not know
• Paulo messina: 35% know it (of these, 6% know it very well; 13%, a little; 17% only heard it) and 65% do not know
• Luiz Lima: 32% know it (of these, 5% know it very well; 12% a little; 14% only heard it) and 68% do not know
• Renata souza: 26% know (of these, 7% know very well; 7%, a little; 12% only knew) and 74% do not know
• Fred light: 17% know (of these, 2% know very well; 5%, a little; 10% only listen) and 83% do not know
• Sweden: 17% know (of these, 1% know it very well, 5% a little, 11% only found out) and 83% do not know
• Gloria Heloiza: 16% know it (of these, 1% know it very well; 5% a little; 10% only heard it) and 84% do not know
• Henrique simonard: 12% know (of these, 0% know very well, 3% a little, 9% only knew) and 88% do not know

The survey also asked whom voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Crivella: 58%
• Eduardo Paes: 31%
• Clarissa garotinho: 31%
• Benedita da Silva: 27%
• Cyro garcia: fifteen%
• Luiz Lima: eleven%
• Paulo Messina: 10%
• Mello Flag: 9%
• Fred light: 9%
• Renata souza: 8%
• Suêd Haidar: 8%
• Gloria Heloiza: 8%
• Henrique simonard: 7%
• Delegate Martha Rocha: 7%
• Reject all / would not vote for none: 6%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 2%
• You could vote for all: 1%

Datafolha also addressed spontaneous voting intention, when the voter says who he will vote for without the names of the candidates being presented. See the results:

• Eduardo Paes: twenty%
• Crivella: 8%
• Martha Rocha: 7%
• Renata souza: 3%
• Benedita da Silva: 3%
• Luiz Lima: two%
• Mello Flag: one%
• Others: 4%
• White / null / none: 17%
• Don’t know / no answer: 34%
• Will not vote / will not vote / justify: 1%

The survey was commissioned by TV Globo and by the newspaper “Folha de S.Paulo”.

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who was heard: 1,008 voters in the city of Rio de Janeiro
• When the survey was conducted: October 20-21
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: RJ-08627/2020
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence