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RIO – The result of the presidential elections in Bolivia was not only important for Bolivians. There were bets at the highest levels of government in the region, in favor and against the triumph of the Movement to Socialism (MAS). If for Brazil it was another setback for the foreign policy of the Bolsonaro government, for Argentina Alberto Fernández it was a triumph full of symbolism. Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro has regained an ally, and his rival, Juan Guaidó, has seen his support base weakened.
Analysts interviewed by GLOBO said that the election of Luis Arce is a political signal for the region, but they also warned of the risk of thinking about a return to a recent past of bonanza at a time when Latin American countries are going through one of the biggest crises. economic aspects of its history.
In terms of regional governance, the Organization of American States (OAS) was the biggest loser. Days before the election, the secretary general of the OAS, the Uruguayan Luis Almagro, received in Washington the now former minister of government, Arturo Murillo, and both spoke about the risk of fraud. After conducting an audit of the 2019 presidential election, used by the Bolivian right to justify the pressures that led to the resignation of former President Evo Morales (2006-2019) and later questioned by experts, the image of the OAS was questioned. The tension increased with a police rebellion and, finally, the ultimatum of the Armed Forces for Morales to leave power.
Yesterday, a day after Arce’s election, Murillo was dismissed by interim president Jeanine Áñez, after being accused of corruption in the purchase of anti-riot equipment. The MAS presented a request to Congress to prevent it from leaving the country.
The return of MAS to power was a “slap in the face” from the Bolsonaro government, which tends to become more isolated in the region, said Daniella Campello, a professor at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV / EBAPE).
– If Joe Biden wins in the United States, I do not know with whom President Bolsonaro will speak. But I don’t see a shift to the left, because today the changes of government occur more because those who leave do not deliver the expected results – said Campello.
Read the review:Result in Bolivia shows that MAS is bigger than Morales
For the professor, who has been studying volatile cycles in Latin America and is co-author of the book “The Volatility Curse” (“The Volatility Course”), launched by the University of Cambridge, “we currently have governments that have extremely limited capacity to do stuff . In this scenario, the chances of early exits from power increase. We will have more instability ”.
Arce will receive a Bolivia with serious fiscal problems, which has nothing to do with the years of economic splendor of the Morales government. Symbolically, the return of the MAS favors the governments of Venezuela, Argentina, Mexico, Cuba and Nicaragua, but this does not necessarily mean a strengthening that brings concrete benefits to the countries, or that guarantees the stability of their respective governments.
– I don’t see a regional tendency to turn left. MAS’s victory confirms its strong base of social support and the disaster that was the interim government of Jeanine Áñez – said Michael Shifter, director of the Interamerican-Dialogue.
For him, “Bolivians do not want to return to what Bolivia was before Evo Morales, they want to look to the future.”
“For Almagro, it will be difficult to regain the lost confidence,” Shifter added.
In a recent virtual conference with former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Argentine head of state said he felt alone in the region and missed the times when presidents like Hugo Chávez and Néstor Kirchner ruled. Peronist Alberto Fernández will now be less lonely and, in some way, will be rewarded for the decision to have given Morales political asylum and allowed him to campaign in Argentina. Fernández has always maintained that the former Bolivian president was overthrown by a coup, differentiating himself from the Brazilian Bolsonaro, who endorsed the OAS audit and fully supported the interim government, showing fear of the return of the MAS to power.
– It has been shown that Latin Americans no longer tolerate neo-coups. Almagro was delegitimized and Argentina no longer felt surrounded by countries that were neither friendly nor hostile, said Juan Tokatlian, vice-rector of the Torcuato Di Tella University.
He considers that the election of Arce is “a geopolitical defeat that is not alien to Brazil”:
“It was a failure of Bolsonaro’s hyper-ideological diplomacy,” he added.
Analytical: Election of Morales’ ally in Bolivia is a defeat for Bolsonaro’s diplomacy
In Caracas, the result was interpreted as a setback for Guaidó, who is allied with conservative and right-wing sectors of Latin American politics. For Carlos Romero, from the Central University of Venezuela (UCV), “this is not a new wave of the left, but a clear search for the Latin American political compass.”
– Cuba, Mexico, Argentina and Venezuela will say that we are experiencing a new wave of progressive governments, but there is an expectation about what Arce will do. Will he be a puppet of Morales or will economic reality force him to be pragmatic and moderate? Romero asked.
Next Sunday, Chileans will go to the polls to participate in a plebiscite on the proposal to approve a new Constitution and finally bury the one left by the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990). Everything indicates that the “Yes” will win, since the majority of Chilean society wants, according to the investigation, a significant change in the country. The new winds that blow in Latin America could influence the presidential elections of Peru and Ecuador, in early 2021. Analysts do not expect radical turns, but rewards and punishments to the current governments of the region. In Bolivia, many believe that the MAS victory is as much a merit for Morales’ party as a consequence of the serious mistakes made by its opponents.
– Today, the regional situation is not favorable for the center-right governments, we can have more changes. Next year we will have presidential elections in Chile and the trend clearly suggests a return to power for the center-left – concluded the former Chilean foreign minister and ambassador to the United States, Juan Gabriel Valdés.
