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RIO – Data from the first round of Ibope polls in the elections for mayors of the 26 capitals indicate that the number of undecided, those who declare they do not know who they will vote for, represents more than half of the voters in some cities , indicating that the dispute should be fierce in the final weeks of the campaign. The index varies between 23%, in Rio Branco, and 54%, in Porto Alegre. In both cases, the rates were reached when the list of candidates was not presented, a model called spontaneous research.
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When the alternatives are exposed to the interviewees, a stimulated survey, the mark of 11% is not exceeded. Experts consider that the difference between the percentage of “don’t know” between the two questions shows that the voter uses memory more than reasoning, which suggests a potential change in voting options, which is still far from being consolidated.
Another challenge for the mayoral candidates in the capitals is the high number of voters who say they vote blank or null. This percentage reaches 27% in Rio and exceeds the 20% mark also in Aracaju, Recife and Natal, cities where the electoral dispute is still mixed.
Management evaluation
The political scientist and researcher at the Federal University of Paraná (UFPR), Fernanda Cavassana estimates that, in the cities where the mayor seeks re-election, the index may also indicate that the assessment of the management is not so consolidated among the electorate.
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– Cities with high indecision rates indicate the importance of lesser-known candidates investing in reaching this constituency and proving viable. The voter who identifies as undecided in unstimulated polls is the one who does not yet have a favorite candidate, and often does not even know who is campaigning. Therefore, in the stimulated research, there is a decrease in the number of undecided, because the options are put. In them, there is also a greater possibility that this voter nominates one of the first mentioned by the poll – says Fernanda.
In the case of Porto Alegre, which leads the indecision rate, Mayor Nelson Marchezan (PSDB) is a candidate for reelection. But amid a political upheaval that led to the presentation of a request for impeachment, he is rejected by 37% of the electorate, when the interviewee, before the list, points to the candidates for whom he would not vote at all.
Across the country, there are differences in the profile of the voter who has not yet defined who to vote for. In São Paulo, Rio, Belo Horizonte, Recife and Goiânia, the percentage of undecided women significantly exceeds that of men, according to cuts from the Ibope surveys analyzed by GLOBO.
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In the capital of Minas Gerais, 46% of voters are in this situation, the difference with men reaches 11 percentage points. In the capital of Goiás, 53% of women reported not knowing who to vote for, compared to 37% of men.
In Rio, São Paulo and Porto Alegre, indecision is also higher among voters with less education and income. In São Paulo, 50% of voters with incomes of up to a minimum wage did not define the vote. When the highest income group is considered (more than five minimum wages), this proportion drops to 28%. Among those with primary education, 47% are undecided, compared to 35% in the group with higher education.
In the state capital, among those with household incomes of up to a minimum wage, 64% are undecided, ten percentage points higher than the city average (54%).
In Rio, as well as in Belo Horizonte, Porto Alegre and Goiânia, the youngest are another extract of the electorate with a high proportion of voters who have not yet defined the vote.
In the capital of Rio de Janeiro, 43% of respondents aged 16 to 24 did not choose a candidate. This percentage is 37% in the city of Minas Gerais. In the other age groups, the percentages are close to the average for the capitals. In Porto Alegre, in addition to the youngest, the elderly are also among those who do not know, at the tip of their tongue, who to vote for.
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In the larger cities of the north and northeast, evangelicals stand out among the undecided. In Belém, 53% of the voters in this stratum do not know who to vote for. In Manaus, it is 43%. In both cities, indecision is also higher among those who have just finished primary school. In Salvador, 41% of evangelicals do not know who to vote for, while among Catholics this percentage is 35%.
TV campaign
In the opinion of Victor Scalet, political analyst at XP, the trend is for the index to fall in the coming weeks with the intensification of the television campaign, leaving voting intentions more consolidated.
– The number of undecided people has dropped very quickly, we have already identified this in investigations we have done. Election hours began recently, so there is room for effects in the coming weeks, he notes.
Traditionally, the interest of voters increases as the elections approach. Therefore, the expectation is that the difference between spontaneous and stimulated will decrease. According to an XP poll, 41% of respondents in São Paulo said they had not yet seen any political propaganda on television, be it the bloc in the middle of the day and late at night or inserts. Additionally, Google data indicates a gradual increase in searches for choice-related topics.
