Ibope survey in Rio de Janeiro: Paes, 30%; Crivella, 12%; Martha, 8%; Benedita, 7% | 2020 elections in Rio de Janeiro

• Eduardo Paes (DEM): 30%
• Crivella (Republicans): 12%
• Martha Rocha (PDT): 8%
• Benedita da Silva (PT): 7%
• Flag of Mello (Rede): 3%
• Renata Souza (PSOL): 3%
• Luiz Lima (PSL): 3%
• Cyro García (PSTU): 2%
• Clarissa Garotinho (Pros): 1%
• Fred Luz (new): 1%
• Paulo Messina (MDB): 1%
• None / blank / null: 23%
• Don’t know / No answer: 5%

Glória Heloiza (PSC) and Henrique Simonard (PCO) had less than 1%.

The name of Suêd Haidar (PMB) was on the disc presented to the interviewees, however, none of them mentioned it, according to Ibope.

In relation to the previous Ibope survey, released October 2:

• Eduardo Paes went from 27% to 30%
• Crivella stayed at 12%
• Martha Rocha kept 8%
• Benedita da Silva kept 7%
• Mello’s flag went from 2% to 3%
• Renata Souza went from 2% to 3%
• Luiz Lima went from 1% to 3%
• Cyro García went from 3% to 2%
• Clarissa Garotinho went from 2% to 1%
• Fred Luz went from 0% to 1%
• Paulo Messina went from 0% to 1%
• Glória Heloiza was left with 0%
• Henrique Simonard kept 0%
• Suêd Haidar had 1% and was not mentioned in the second poll.
• The undecided remained 7% to 5%, and the white or null were 28% to 23%

According to Ibope, the voting intentions of former mayor Eduardo Paes are more pronounced among Cariocas who describe the current municipal administration as bad and terrible (37%) and among Catholics (38%). In relation to the previous round, there is an increase of 17 percentage points in voting intention among those with primary education (from 17% to 34%); 13 percentage points among voters aged 35 to 44 (from 17% to 30%); and 9 percentage points among those who earn less than 1 minimum wage (20% to 29%).

Also according to Ibope, the current mayor Crivella continues to stand out among evangelicals (24%) and among voters who evaluate his management well (61%); and that Crivella shows a 7 percentage point decrease (20% to 13%) among voters who have elementary school.

The survey also asked whom voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• Crivella: 57%
• Clarissa Garotinho: 40%
• Eduardo Paes: 30%
• Benedita da Silva: 29%
• Cyro García: 16%
• Luiz Lima: 10%
• Martha Rocha: 9%
• Fred Light: 9%
• Paulo Messina: 9%
• Mello flag: 8%
• Glory of Heloiza: 8%
• Renata Souza: 8%
• Suêd Haidar: 8%
• Henrique Simonard: 7%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 7%
• You could vote for all: 1%

Ibope also took care of spontaneous voting intention, when the voter says who he will vote for without the names of the candidates being presented. See the results:

• Eduardo Paes: 22%
• Crivella: 9%
• Benedita da Silva: 3%
• Martha Rocha: 3%
• Luiz Lima: 2%
• Mello flag: 1%
• Renata Souza: 1%
• Others: 1%
• White / null: 27%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 30%

Clarissa Garotinho, Cyro García, Fred Luz, Henrique Simonard, Glória Heloiza, Paulo Messina and Suêd Haidar did not reach 1%.

Ibope also questioned if the second round of the mayoral election was today and the dispute was only between Paes and Crivella in which voters would vote:

Eduardo Paes 50% x 21% Crivella (blank / null: 25%; don’t know: 4%)

The survey was commissioned by TV Globo.

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who was heard: 1,001 voters in the city of Rio de Janeiro
• When the survey was conducted: October 13-15
• Identification number in the Electoral Tribunal: RJ-09221/2020
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence