Ibope survey in Recife: João Campos, 33%; Mendonça Filho, 18%; Marília Arraes, 14%; Patrícia Patrícia, 13% | 2020 elections in Pernambuco

Charbel (Novo) and Thiago Santos (UP) had less than 1% of voting intentions. Victor Assis (PCO) was not mentioned in the survey.

The survey was commissioned by TV Globo, in partnership with Jornal do Commercio.

Highlighted by segment, according to Ibope

According to the analysis carried out by Ibope, voting intentions in João Campos continue to be more pronounced among voters aged 16 to 24, reaching 43% of mentions. In this stratum, in the previous round, it was mentioned by 29%. In addition, Campos grew 16 percentage points among evangelical voters, being cited by 35% of those surveyed.

Mendonça Filho, for his part, has more expressive mentions among voters aged 55 or over and those whose family income is higher than five minimum wages, since they earn 27% and 26%, respectively, in these segments. Compared to the previous poll, the Democrat shows a decrease among the youngest (from 19% to 10%).

Petista Marilia Arraes is strongest among the most educated voters (22%).

Among those with a family income of more than five minimum wages (21%), Delegada Patrícia stands out, a segment in which it grew 10 percentage points between the two surveys. Mentions of the other candidates are evenly distributed among the analyzed segments.

The poll also asked who voters would not vote for at all. The percentages were as follows:

• João Campos (PSB): 28%
• Mendonça Filho (DEM): 28%
• Colonel Feitosa (PSC): 28%
• Charbel (Novo): 22%
• Carlos (PSL): 21%
• Victor Assis (PCO): 21%
• Thiago Santos (UP): 21%
• Marília Arraes (PT): 19%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo (PRTB): 18%
• Claudia Ribeiro (PSTU): 15%
• Patrícia Patrícia (Podemos): 14%
• Could vote for all (spontaneous response): 2%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: 7%

Second shift simulations

• Patrícia Patrícia 39% x 44% João Campos. White / Null: 15%. Don’t know / didn’t answer: 2%
• Patrícia Patrícia 42% x 38% Marilia Arraes. White / Null: 17%. Don’t know / didn’t answer: 3%
• Patrícia Patrícia 43% x 38% Mendonça Filho. White / Null: 17%. Don’t know / didn’t answer: 2%
• João Campos 44% x 33% Marília Arraes. White / Null: 21%. Don’t know / didn’t answer: 2%
• João Campos 48% x 33% Mendonça Filho. White / Null: 18%. Don’t know / didn’t answer: 2%
• Marilia Arraes 41% x 40% Mendonça Filho. White / Null: 17%. Don’t know / didn’t answer: 2%

Evolution of candidates

In relation to the previous Ibope survey, published on October 7:

• João Campos went from 23% to 33%
• Mendonça Filho went from 19% to 18%
• Marília Arraes remained at 14%
• Patrícia Patrícia went from 11% to 13%
• Claudia Ribeiro stayed at 1%
• Colonel Feitosa stayed at 1%
• Marco Aurélio Meu Amigo stayed at 1%
• Carlos went from 0% to 1%
• Blank / null: went from 22% to 14%
• Don’t know / didn’t answer: went from 7% to 3%

Charbel and Thiago Santos stayed at less than 1%. Víctor Assis, who in the previous survey had less than 1%, was not mentioned in the new survey.

• Margin of error: 3 percentage points more or less
• Who Was Heard: 1,001 Recife Voters
• When the survey was conducted: October 13-15
• TRE-PE identification number: PE 08776/2020
• The confidence level used is 95%. This means that there is a 95% probability that the results reflect the current electoral moment, considering the margin of error.

Electoral polls: what is a sample, margin of error and level of confidence

VIDEOS: see the responses of candidates to the city of Recife on topics relevant to the city