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SÃO PAULO – The negative evaluations of the government of Jair Bolsonaro continue to fall for the fifth consecutive month and reached, in October, the lowest mark in 17 months. This is what the new round of the XP / Ipespe survey shows, which took place between October 8 and 11.
According to the survey, now 31% of respondents rated the current management as bad or very bad. The figure is the same registered in May 2019 and represents a cumulative fall of 19 percentage points since May of this year, a period of the worst perception by voters of the Bolsonaro government.
At the other extreme, 39% rate the management as excellent or good, the same percentage recorded in the September survey. The result is just 1 percentage point below Bolsonaro’s best mark since he took office. As a result, the difference between positive and negative evaluations reached 8 percentage points, the highest in 18 months.
1,000 telephone interviews were conducted nationwide, conducted by operators on October 8, 9, 10 and 11. The margin of error is 3.2 percentage points up or down.
The improvement in the Bolsonaro index coincides with the effects caused by the emergency aid. According to Caixa Econômica Federal, 67.7 million Brazilians benefited from the program, which today consists of monthly transfers of R $ 300, half of the amount distributed in the first five months and is expected to end in December. In total, 42% of the voters surveyed say that someone in their household has already received the benefit.
Stratified data shows that among voters with a monthly household income of up to two minimum wages, the government’s positive assessment jumped from 22% in April to 39% today. In the Northeast, a bastion in which the opposition to Bolsonaro is politically stronger, the group of voters who rate the government as excellent or good went from 15% to 35% in the period, the highest mark of the current administration .
The survey also shows that 68% of Brazilians would support a new extension of emergency aid if Renda Cidadã, a new program that the federal government is trying to create to replace Bolsa Família, does not start operating as of next year. Among those who say they do not receive the benefit, 65% would defend the measure. Learn more by clicking here.
Pandemic
The movements in the assessment of the Bolsonaro government also coincide with a reduction in voters’ concern about the new coronavirus pandemic and an improvement in the perception of the role of the president in managing the crisis, although with more negative figures for the leader.
According to the survey, 34% of voters say they are not afraid of Covid-19. The number is the highest since February (49%). Another 37% say they are a little afraid of the disease, while 28% say they are very afraid, also the lowest level in eight months. For 64%, the worst of the crisis is over, while 30% believe that the worst is yet to come.
From May to the present, the group of interviewees who consider the president’s performance to be good in the face of the crisis caused by Covid-19 went from 20% to 30%. Even so, the majority (47%) rate the management in this field as bad or very bad.
The improvement in Bolsonaro’s popularity, however, is not accompanied by such significant changes in the perception of the progress of the Brazilian economy and in the expectations of the electorate regarding corruption.
The survey shows that 40% believe that, in the next six months, corruption will have increased, while 23% expect a decrease. The last time the second group surpassed the first was in December of last year, when former judge Sérgio Moro was still Minister of Justice and Public Security.
In April, when Moro left office accusing Bolsonaro of trying to interfere politically with the Federal Police, the difference reached 27 percentage points for those who expect an increase in this type of crime.
The survey also shows that 47% believe that the Brazilian economy is on the wrong track, while 39% see it in the right direction. The difference reached 29 percentage points in May on the side of the pessimists, while at the beginning of the year support exceeded criticism.
On the other hand, in a month the percentage of respondents that grew from 52% to 57% believe that the possibilities of keeping their own jobs and the occupation of family members are high. It is the best brand since the beginning of the pandemic. On the contrary, 36% believe that the possibility of maintaining the current occupation is small.
On the debt side, 29% expect an increase, while 25% believe in a reduction. The difference between the two groups reached 31 percentage points in April.
The poll also heard the opinion of those interviewed about Bolsonaro’s relationship with the National Congress. For 50%, the president should relax his positions to approve his agenda, even if that means moving away from the initial speech. Already 32% defend that they are hardening their positions and their speech, although this implies difficulties in the relationship with the parliament, while 2% believe that the representative should maintain the current position.
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